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    IDP Education (ASX:IEL) Is Down 18.1% After Weaker FY26 Earnings And A$50m Buyback - Has The Bull Case Changed?

    Simply Wall St·08/24/2026 03:25:24
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    • IDP Education Limited has released its full-year results for the 12 months to June 30, 2026, reporting sales of A$795.4 million and net income of A$12.27 million, both lower than the prior year, and announced basic earnings per share from continuing operations of A$0.0441.
    • Alongside these weaker earnings, the company unveiled a A$50 million on-market share buyback running through to June 2027, signaling a capital management response that may shape how investors assess the quality and sustainability of its earnings base.
    • Against this backdrop of softer profitability and a new A$50 million share buyback, we will assess how these developments reshape IDP Education's investment narrative.

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    IDP Education Investment Narrative Recap

    To own IDP Education today, you need to believe in the long term demand for international study and English testing, even as current earnings remain under pressure. The sharp drop in FY26 profit and EPS keeps execution risk very real in the short term, but does not materially change the biggest near term swing factor: how quickly student volumes and IELTS testing activity stabilise from here, versus the risk that weaker demand and policy uncertainty persist.

    The new A$50 million on market share buyback, running through to June 2027, is the most relevant recent announcement alongside these results, because it sits against a backdrop of falling revenue, lower net income and reduced profit margins. For me, it now sits alongside IDP’s push into higher growth student placement markets as a key element of the story to watch, particularly if regulatory shifts in Australia and Canada continue to weigh on international student flows.

    But investors should also be aware that heavier reliance on IELTS volumes at a time of weaker conditions in India and changing migration settings could...

    Read the full narrative on IDP Education (it's free!)

    IDP Education's narrative projects A$832.9 million revenue and A$86.9 million earnings by 2029. This requires 1.5% yearly revenue growth and about a A$74.6 million earnings increase from A$12.3 million today.

    Uncover how IDP Education's forecasts yield a A$3.18 fair value, a 81% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    ASX:IEL 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    ASX:IEL 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Four members of the Simply Wall St Community currently place IDP Education’s fair value between A$3.18 and A$13.29, underlining how far opinions can stretch. Set this against the recent earnings slide and pressure on IELTS testing volumes, and you can see why it helps to compare several viewpoints before forming a view on the company’s prospects.

    Explore 4 other fair value estimates on IDP Education - why the stock might be worth over 7x more than the current price!

    Reach Your Own Conclusion

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.