Why do US long-term Treasury yields remain high? Xiong Yuan, chief economist at Guosheng Securities, pointed out that on the one hand, America's high deficit means that the long-term supply center will tend to rise in the future, and the expansion of AI capital expenditure will bring about a large supply of high-rated, long-term corporate bonds, competing with US bonds for long-term capital; on the other hand, the marginal carrying capacity of traditional long-term bond buyers such as overseas government departments has declined, while concerns about the Fed's anti-inflation reputation and US fiscal sustainability will further push up the term premium. It should be noted that unlike the “debt bear” in 2022, which was mainly driven by rapid interest rate hikes by the central bank, it is currently more like repricing the long-term interest rate center and long-term risk compensation. Yu Jingwei, chief analyst of global asset allocation at CITIC Securities Research Department, also believes that the short-term rise in US bond interest rates has three catalysts: the escalation of the Middle East conflict is driving up oil prices, concerns about the US Federal Reserve's austerity led by Walsh, and rising expectations for tech giants to divert funds from US bonds. Yu Jingwei predicts that under the assumption that the US economy will not fall into recession, interest rates on US bonds will continue to face the double impact of high inflation and the cessation of easing.

Why do US long-term Treasury yields remain high? Xiong Yuan, chief economist at Guosheng Securities, pointed out that on the one hand, America's high deficit means that the long-term supply center will tend to rise in the future, and the expansion of AI capital expenditure will bring about a large supply of high-rated, long-term corporate bonds, competing with US bonds for long-term capital; on the other hand, the marginal carrying capacity of traditional long-term bond buyers such as overseas government departments has declined, while concerns about the Fed's anti-inflation reputation and US fiscal sustainability will further push up the term premium. It should be noted that unlike the “debt bear” in 2022, which was mainly driven by rapid interest rate hikes by the central bank, it is currently more like repricing the long-term interest rate center and long-term risk compensation. Yu Jingwei, chief analyst of global asset allocation at CITIC Securities Research Department, also believes that the short-term rise in US bond interest rates has three catalysts: the escalation of the Middle East conflict is driving up oil prices, concerns about the US Federal Reserve's austerity led by Walsh, and rising expectations for tech giants to divert funds from US bonds. Yu Jingwei predicts that under the assumption that the US economy will not fall into recession, interest rates on US bonds will continue to face the double impact of high inflation and the cessation of easing.