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Cui Dongshu: In January-July, China's automobile exports increased by 54% to 6.41 million vehicles, expected to be 12 million units for the whole year

Zhitongcaijing·08/24/2026 11:49:06

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The Zhitong Finance App learned that Cui Dongshu published an article stating that from January to July 2026, China's automobile exports reached 6.41 million vehicles, an increase of 54% over the same period in 2025. Among them, in July, China exported 1.09 million vehicles, an increase of 57% year on year and 2% month on month. The year-on-year trend is generally strong, and the month-on-month trend is growing. The main drivers this year are still high oil prices and the increasing competitiveness of Chinese products and the continued growth of the global southern markets.

The top 10 countries with total exports of Chinese automobiles in July 2026: Russia 94,700, the United Kingdom 65,245, Mexico 55,727, Belgium 5,2078, Australia 51263, the Philippines 3,9936, Thailand 28,598, Saudi Arabia 25,731, Italy 25,386, and Spain 25094. Among them, the top five that increased over the same period were: Russia 45,486, the United Kingdom 33,454, Australia 26,829, Belgium 19653, and Spain 14,233.

The top 10 countries with cumulative total vehicle exports from January to July 2026: Russia 54,2857, Brazil 427,673, UK 320,505, Australia 28,9086, Belgium 27,1808, Mexico 265,882, Philippines, 18,663, Italy 180,256, UAE 168,569, Algeria 16,5859. Among them, the top five that increased over the same period were: Russia 312,897 vehicles, Brazil 25,2324 vehicles, UK 152,302, Australia 121,197, Algeria 107,481.

In July 2026, China exported 540,000 new energy vehicles, an increase of 85% over the previous year. The cumulative export performance in January-July was 2.96 million units, an increase of 72%. In July, NEV exports showed a strong month-on-month performance compared to June. In July 2026, pure electric vehicles accounted for 32% of China's automobile exports (+3% YoY), hybrid accounts for 18% (YoY +5%), hybrids accounted for 7% (YoY 0%), and pure gasoline vehicles accounted for 35% (YoY -8%).

The top 10 countries with total NEV exports in July 2026: Britain 51,411, Belgium 49,400, Australia 40,450, Philippines 36,843, Thailand 27,976, South Korea 17788, Spain 15,895, Indonesia 15,800, Italy 14,835, and Mexico 12,387. Among them, the top five that increased over the same period were: Britain 29,146, Australia 2,4099, Belgium 19,248, Thailand 14,827, and the Philippines 13,518 .

The top 10 countries with total NEV exports from January to July 2026: Brazil 30,6534, Belgium 258,617, UK 23,2671, Australia 20,7576, Philippines 162,905, Thailand 15,4622, Germany 95576, Italy 94338, South Korea 93218, Spain 88,618. Among them, the top five that increased over the same period were: Brazil 18,4616, Australia 11812,443, Belgium 83,201, Thailand 81,124 vehicles.

China's NEV export performance from January to July 2026 was better than expected. Mainly, hybrid and hybrid vehicles replaced pure electric vehicles as a new growth point for export growth. In particular, the export performance of pure electric trucks was strong, which became the highlight of commercial vehicle NEV exports. The recovery in capacity contributed to a sharp increase in exports in July. China's NEV exports are mainly exported to Western Europe, Central and South America. The Middle East market is blocked.

I. Overall trend of China's automobile exports

1. Trends in automobile exports over the years

China's automobile exports have continued to grow at a high rate since breaking through the millionth level in 2021 (up 102% in 2021, 50% + in 2024-2023, and falling back to around 30% in 2024-2025), and exported 6.41 million vehicles from January to July 2026 (up 54% from 2025), continuing the growth trend. Recently, China's automobile exports have shown a rapid growth trend. In the future, as long as the international market environment is stable, there is still huge room for development of Chinese automobile exports.

2. Monthly trend of vehicle exports

Judging from the monthly trend, China's automobile exports in recent years are still characterized by continuous strengthening of inertia. Recently, they have shown a trend in contrast between higher exports and domestic downturn. The export growth rate from January to July 2026 was relatively strong, continuing the momentum of continuous growth. Despite the outbreak of the US-Iran war, due to market fragmentation, the growth rate of China's automobile exports was less affected by the external environment and continued to rise since 2026.

From January to July 2026, China achieved exports of 6.41 million vehicles, a growth rate of 54% over the same period in 2025. In July, China achieved exports of 1.09 million vehicles, an increase of 57% year on year and 2% month on month. The year-on-year trend is generally strong, and the month-on-month trend is growing. The main drivers this year are still high oil prices and the increasing competitiveness of Chinese products and the continued growth of the global southern markets.

Judging from monthly trends, China's automobile exports in recent years are still showing seasonal characteristics, which are characterized by a trend that contrasts with rising summer and domestic trends. The export growth rate was relatively strong from January to July 2026, mainly due to the slump in the domestic market, and the increasing momentum and ability of enterprises to respond to overseas markets.

3. Structural characteristics of automobile exports

The growth rate of various types of customs models has diverged throughout this year. The growth rate of passenger cars has gradually rebounded to 57%. The growth rate of trucks is slower than that of passenger cars. Truck exports have increased by 42%. Compared with the steady trend of domestic fuel trucks, electric truck exports have been relatively good recently.

In terms of structure, the share of passenger car exports gradually stabilized, reaching 85% by 2023, and then relatively stable. Truck exports have increased markedly due to electric trucks. The share of bus exports has continued to fall to a low level in recent years. Since passenger cars are the focus of trade, the overall proportion of trucks and buses exported reached 14%, which is slightly lower than the share of domestic commercial vehicles.

The performance of several major passenger car categories is more balanced. Passenger car exports in 2026 are minibuses with 9 seats or less; in 2026, buses with 9 seats or less account for 45%, of which reached 44% in July. Although the impact of the decline in Tesla exports was significant, exports of autonomous electric vehicles grew better in July.

The share performance of trucks in July was poor. Pickup truck growth increased in July, heavy truck export performance declined to a high level, and other truck markets showed strong trends. Among buses, the performance of large and medium-sized buses was weak, and the share of light bus exports rebounded in July.

4. Structural characteristics of export dynamics

In terms of export power structure characteristics, the export growth rate of passenger cars declined significantly in 2025. Among them, gasoline vehicle exports all grew at a low rate. This year, exports of hybrid passenger cars were very strong, while plug-in passenger car exports grew the strongest. Truck and bus exports have been stable this year, and fluctuations in passenger car exports to Russia and Europe are the core drivers of growth.

From January to July 2026, the share of new energy in passenger cars rebounded, the share of fuel vehicles dropped significantly, and hybrids rose to prominence. Exports of gasoline passenger cars, diesel trucks, and gasoline buses have declined significantly. Exports of plug-in hybrid passenger cars, diesel trucks, and hybrid passenger cars grew well in July.

II. The pattern of the automobile export market

1. Domestic regional characteristics of export manufacturers

The leading national automobile export position in Shanghai, which began in 2024, was replaced by Anhui, and in 2026, Anhui will maintain the number one export position. The importance of Shanghai's exports to China is extremely obvious. In fact, it is a leader with long four corners, and the radiation effect is strong. From January to July 2026, Anhui exported 1.23 million vehicles. This is mainly due to the relatively excellent local enterprises in Anhui, as well as companies such as BYD (01211), which settled in Hefei. Shanghai companies have a high export grade. SAIC Motor and Tesla companies have a high average export price.

Anhui's export performance has been relatively strong in the past two years. Mainly, the export performance of Chery and JAC is relatively strong, but the Russian market has fluctuated greatly, so Anhui's exports have diversified quite well recently. The contribution of automobile exports from Chongqing, Shandong, and Jiangxi increased significantly in 2026.

2. Characteristics of export regions

The overall performance of China's automobile exports was strong. Among them, the EU and Africa surged, and exports to Japan, South Korea, Africa, and Oceania performed relatively well. Meanwhile, there is a lot of pressure on export performance in Southeast Asia and Oceania.

Earlier, China's automobile exports accounted for a high share in Central and South America and the European Union, and other regions of Asia, such as Southeast Asia and South Asia, showed strong performance. Currently, it is gradually shifting to the relatively strong characteristics of Central and South America, Europe, Russia, and Central Asia, and exports from Japan, South Korea, and the US have also improved. In particular, July was affected by the US-Iran war, and exports to the Middle East were clearly blocked.

3. Analysis of vehicle export trends by country

The decline in the average export price is conducive to export growth. As the RMB appreciates, the US dollar export price remains stable, and China's automobile export prices will be more competitive in 2026. The Russian market changed dramatically in the early stages, and other foreign investors withdrew. As a result, China has also exported a lot to Russia since 2023, removed inventory in 2025, and returned to normal in 2026. Last year, more cars were exported to Belgium. Relations with Europe have improved this year, and export performance has also improved.

Exports to the UAE market fell 50% in July, and other Middle Eastern countries contracted even more severely.

Recently, the Brazilian market has performed well, and the local construction of Chinese automobiles has achieved certain results. Car markets such as Britain and Thailand have recovered this year.

4. Monthly trend of increase or decrease in vehicle exports

In the Russian market, Chinese car companies' awareness of risk prevention has increased. Domestic sales in Russia did not decline much in 2025, but we are making great efforts to export and remove inventory. From January to July 2026, our exports to Russia recovered significantly.

III. Export trends of new energy vehicles

1. Characteristics of NEV exports over the years

With the transformation of China's domestic NEV market from subsidy-driven to market-driven, China's NEV market competitiveness has increased dramatically. China's NEV exports have exploded since 2021, then entered a continuous high growth range. Despite being disrupted by the EU's NEV export policy in 2024, China's NEV exports still reached 201 million units in 2024, an increase of 16% over the previous year. In 2025, 3.43 million new energy vehicles were exported, an increase of 70% over the previous year, and the performance was good. From January to July 2026, 2.96 million new energy vehicles were exported, an increase of 108% over the previous year, and the performance was good.

3. Changes in the structure of automobile exports

In July 2026, pure electric vehicles accounted for 32% of China's automobile exports (3% YoY), hybrid accounts for 18% (YoY +5%), hybrids accounted for 7% (YoY 0%), and pure gasoline vehicles accounted for 35% (YoY -8%).

98% of NEV exports are passenger cars. Commercial vehicles account for a relatively small share, and NEVs perform better than buses. The share of unlisted passenger cars due to electrification remains high.

4. Analysis of regional changes in new energy exports

As Tesla entered China, China's automobile export pattern changed. In previous years, Shanghai ranked first for a long time. With the rise of domestic cars, they have independently become the core of new energy exports. Recently, Anhui and others have risen, and new energy exports from Anhui, Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Jiangsu performed well in July.

The average export price of new energy vehicles rose relatively steadily in 2026, and export performance was relatively good.

5. Analysis of changes in NEV exports in 2026

Exports to the European Union, such as Brazil, Belgium, and the United Kingdom in 2026, are some of the main directions. Recently, exports to markets such as Turkey and Mexico have been weak.

6. Analysis of changes in fuel vehicle exports by power vehicle

In 2024, China exported 3.48 million units of gasoline fuel vehicles, an increase of 22%; in 2025, China exported 3.55 million units, an increase of 2%; from January to July 2026, China exported 2.32 million units of gasoline fuel vehicles, an increase of 29%.

This year, China has a strong fuel vehicle market for markets such as Russia, Africa, and South Asia. The overall performance of other markets is average. In particular, fuel vehicle exports to the European Union, Oceania and other markets have declined, and the characteristics of high-quality development are obvious.

Diesel vehicle exports are better than gasoline vehicles this year, achieving strong growth in diesel vehicles in Africa and Central and South America. The export performance of Japan, South Korea, and the Middle East was poor in July.

This year, the increase in hybrid models to other markets in Europe, Central and South America, and Asia was strong, reflecting the overall increase in the competitiveness of Chinese passenger cars. However, sales in the Middle East declined sharply, and hybrid performance in Russia's Central Asia region was average.

7. Analysis of changes in NEV exports in 2026

In 2024, China exported 1.76 million pure electric vehicles, an increase of 6%; in 2025, China exported 2.33 million pure electric vehicles, an increase of 32%; from January to July 2026, China exported 1.95 million units of pure electric vehicles, an increase of 59%, which is also very good.

Currently, the EU market for pure electric power is still the absolute main market. Demand in the Southeast Asian market and markets such as Central and South America fluctuates relatively greatly. The Japanese and South Korean markets have clearly risen, but the Middle East market has lost huge losses. Due to the lack of infrastructure abroad, and the fact that China pursues high-end electric power too much, and the characteristics of large-scale expansion are obvious, small electric vehicles lack good products, and there is still room for improvement in pure electric exports.

From January to July 2026, China exported 1.1 million hybrid vehicles, an increase of 122%, of which 190,000 plug-in vehicles were exported in July, an increase of 166%. Apart from regions such as the US and Canada, where there is very little demand for mixing, China's mixed performance in other regions is outstanding. Meanwhile, demand for hybrid models in China has exploded in the European Union, and the Middle East's plug-in hybrid exports are generally growing.

IV. Export trends by passenger car category

1. Export of passenger cars by emission

Passenger car exports mainly rely on plug-in hybrid and hybrid passenger cars. Pure electric performance is also strong, and fuel vehicle exports have maintained a good trend. The displacement of fuel vehicles is mainly in the 1 liter to 1.5 liter range. This is also a comprehensive advantage of China's autonomous passenger car products. The 1.5-2 liter model in 2025 declined sharply. Exports of 1.5-2 liter models recovered relatively quickly this year, indicating that Russia and others are more in demand for high-end, high-priced SUV models from China, and there is basically no market for diesel passenger cars.

However, with the product grade differentiation of electric vehicle models, exports of high-end electric vehicles improved greatly, while entry-level plug-in exports grew better.

2. Structural characteristics of passenger vehicle exports

China's largest fuel passenger vehicle exports in July 2026 were Russia's 81,250, Mexico's 32640, Saudi Arabia 18031, Algeria's 17027, Kazakhstan 14,534, UAE 13,122, Belarus 1,3001, Malaysia 11,768, South Africa, and 9829 Kyrgyz vehicles. Among them, the top five that increased over the same period were: Russia 39,764, Mexico 14,804, South Africa 5946, Belarus 4,702, and the US 4,412 .

China's largest fuel passenger vehicle exports from January to July 2026 were Russia 48,2028, Mexico 14,6074, Algeria 11,7968, Saudi Arabia, 77,718, Belarus, 77,718, Kazakhstan 77,475, Brazil, 73,360, UAE, 7,3229, Malaysia, 69,803, and Kyrgyzstan 68,691. Among them, the top five that increased this year over the same period last year were: Russia 284,451, Algeria 69,428, and Kyrgyzstan 37,383. Brazil 36,723, Peru 32078.

China's exports of pure electric passenger vehicles in July 2026 were mainly 35,789 units in Belgium, 33,845 in Australia, 27,323 in the Philippines, 26,193 units in Thailand, 24,561 units in the UK, 16,167 vehicles in South Korea, 14,705 in Indonesia, 10054 in Malaysia, 9931 units, and 9659 units in Colombia. Among them, the top five that increased over the same period were: Australia 2,1288, Thailand, 13,900, Belgium, 13065, the United Kingdom, and 8646 South Korea.

From January to July 2026, China's exports of pure electric passenger vehicles were mainly 180,463 to Belgium, 150,892 to Brazil, 148,984 to Thailand, 14,6873 from Australia, 124,651 from the United Kingdom, 118,137 from South Korea, 62,859 from India, 62126 from Indonesia, and 53991 from Germany. Among them, the top five that increased this year over the same period last year were: Brazil 10,9947, Australia 93787, Thailand 79136, Belgium 54296, South Korea 5,3821 vehicles.

In July 2026, exports of hybrid passenger cars were mainly 26,705 British vehicles, 12,834 Belgian vehicles, 10382 Italian vehicles, 9104 Philippine vehicles, 8420 Jordanian vehicles, 8,367 Mexican vehicles, 7875 Russian vehicles, 7267 Spanish vehicles, 6068 Israel, and 5,870 Australian vehicles. Among them, the top five vehicles that increased in the current period over the same period were: the United Kingdom 19483, Jordan 7,248, Italy 6962, the Philippines 6583, and Belgium 5738.

From January to July 2026, the exports of hybrid passenger cars were mainly 154,230 in Brazil, 11,3044 in Belgium, 56,495 in Italy, 5,3738 in the UAE, 51,738 in Spain, 47,176 in Australia, 41,057 in Germany, 36,950 in the Philippines, and 34,926 in Russia. Among them, the top five that increased this year over the same period last year were: the United Kingdom 74873, Brazil 74,200, Italy 4,3661, Australia 3,632, and Germany 33,145.

In July 2026, the export of passenger car ordinary hybrids was mainly 8,472 in the UK, 7,173 in Italy, 7129 in Spain, 6765 in France, 4,758 in Poland, 3412 in the UAE, 2,975 in Australia, 2596 in Jordan, 2,312 in Belgium, and 1950 in Israel. Among them, the top five that increased over the same period were 5038 in Italy, 5001 in France, 4442 in Spain, 3,643 in Poland, and 3,351 in the UK.

From January to July 2026, passenger car ordinary hybrids were mainly exported to the UK, 4,945 to Italy, 41,165, Spain, 36,915, Brazil, 31,915, France, 26,255, Poland 26,219, 19840, Australia, 16,523, Argentina, and 10,877 Jordanians. Among them, the top five that increased this year over the same period last year were: Italy 28,940, Brazil, 26,198, Spain, 24,197, Poland, and 2,755.

5. Export trends by truck category

1. Truck exports

Export growth in the truck market has not been strong in recent years. The share of the automobile export market has continued to shrink slightly, but in 2026, the strong performance of pure electric and diesel light trucks led to an improvement in export share. The main force in the truck market is gasoline and diesel trucks under 5 tons. Overall, there is also strong demand for heavy diesel trucks of 5-14 tons and 20 tons or more.

2. Characteristics of changes in the truck export market

The overall performance of the top few fuel truck export markets was stable. The main export market for fuel trucks performed well from January to July 2026.

The mixed truck export market has recently been strong. This is mainly due to the increase in the passenger car attributes of pickup trucks, which have created convenient and cost-effective use in overseas markets.

Currently, the export market in July has 1,013 vehicles from Argentina, 604 Australia, 467 Pakistan, 424 South Africa, 328 Cambodia, 264 New Zealand, 228 Saudi Arabia, 127 Ecuador, 101 Philippine vehicles, and 100 Italian vehicles. Among them, the top five vehicles that have increased over the same period are: Argentina 1,013, Pakistan 463, South Africa 419, Cambodia 322, and New Zealand 234.

Currently, the top ten total exports for the year are: Australia with 12,660 vehicles, Argentina 3192, Pakistan, 1,583 Chile, 1,583, South Africa, 1,359, Brazil, 961, Mexico, 919, and Colombia with 749 vehicles. Among them, the top five that increased this year over the same period last year are: Argentina 3070, Pakistan 1,870, UAE, 772 Chile, and 413 Cambodia.

The export market for pure electric trucks has recently surged. This is mainly due to a sharp increase in the attributes of special vehicles, creating a strong scenario convenience and cost advantage in overseas markets.

6. Export trends by passenger car category

1. Overall bus exports

Recently, world demand for buses has declined to a certain extent, causing China's bus exports to continue to shrink in the previous two years, from 64,000 vehicles in 2019 to 48,000 units in 2022. World demand has recovered since 2023, and the total number of buses in China reached 106,000 in 2025.

From January to July 2026, pure electric buses were exported to 0.96 million units, showing an average decline of 6%. Exports of diesel buses from a low base increased significantly, and exports of large and medium-sized gasoline buses were strong.

2. Characteristics of changes in the bus export market

China's main fuel bus export market is scattered, mainly from underdeveloped countries. The market is complex, making it difficult to continue exporting in an orderly manner.

The export market for pure electric buses is small, and the data fluctuates greatly. The main export forces in July this year were: 321 vehicles from Nepal, 222 from Mexico, 186 from Belgium, 163 from Ethiopia, 121 from the United Kingdom, 91 from Israel, 73 from Malaysia, 68 from Pakistan, 60 from Nigeria, and 56 from Indonesia. Among them, the top five that increased over the same period were: Mexico 188, Nepal 164, Ethiopia 163, Belgium 162, Israel 91.

The main exporters of pure electric buses this year were: Nepal 1,707, Norway 648, Ethiopia 583, Israel 518, Mexico 474, Belgium 426, Britain 387, Pakistan 281, Chile 268, and Portugal 267. Among them, the top five that increased this year over the same period last year were 449 in Ethiopia, 407 in Mexico, 306 in Belgium, 301 in Norway, and 266 in Pakistan.