CICC released a research report saying that the focus of the market this week was the Jackson Hole Conference and Walsh's speech. Earlier, Walsh's “let the market raise interest rates for the Federal Reserve” failed to ease concerns about inflation. Combined with the failure of the Treasury Department's intervention and damage to policy credibility, US bond yields continued to rise. CICC expects that Walsh will reaffirm the risk of inflation and retain the option to raise interest rates to restore credibility, but he will also continue to insist on long-term propositions such as reducing central bank intervention and reducing the frequency of communication. I believe that Walsh has not abandoned the policy concept of “downsizing+interest rate cutting,” but the premise on which it was founded is misplaced with the current reality, and needs to be coordinated and expressed more clearly. If Walsh can show sufficient policy flexibility, market concerns about US bonds are expected to partially ease, and the US dollar will be supported; on the contrary, trust will continue to be lost, long-term US bond yields will continue to rise, and the dollar will be under pressure.

CICC released a research report saying that the focus of the market this week was the Jackson Hole Conference and Walsh's speech. Earlier, Walsh's “let the market raise interest rates for the Federal Reserve” failed to ease concerns about inflation. Combined with the failure of the Treasury Department's intervention and damage to policy credibility, US bond yields continued to rise. CICC expects that Walsh will reaffirm the risk of inflation and retain the option to raise interest rates to restore credibility, but he will also continue to insist on long-term propositions such as reducing central bank intervention and reducing the frequency of communication. I believe that Walsh has not abandoned the policy concept of “downsizing+interest rate cutting,” but the premise on which it was founded is misplaced with the current reality, and needs to be coordinated and expressed more clearly. If Walsh can show sufficient policy flexibility, market concerns about US bonds are expected to partially ease, and the US dollar will be supported; on the contrary, trust will continue to be lost, long-term US bond yields will continue to rise, and the dollar will be under pressure.