Cathay Pacific Haitong: The holiday season is approaching, and the industry is gradually catalyzing low-ranking scenic spot stocks worth paying attention to

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Cathay Pacific Haitong released a research report saying that the performance of scenic spot companies is further divided, and that effective operating days, high-margin project operation, and secondary conversion rates have become the key to profit release. The increase in the number of days during the Mid-Autumn Festival National Day holiday is expected to drive the total number of trips to continue to grow, but volume and price performance may still diverge. The overall stock price of the scenic spot sector is relatively low. It is recommended to focus on the two main lines of “undervaluation safety margin” and “catalytic project implementation.” Focus on undervaluation, operational resilience, and project catalytic and flexible targets.

Cathay Pacific Haitong's main views are as follows:

Demand remains resilient, but customer unit prices still limit industry growth

In the first half of 2026, the number of domestic travelers was 3.463 billion, +5.4% year on year; the total travel expenses of domestic residents were 3.21 trillion yuan, +2.0% year over year; the customer unit price was 926.942 yuan, -3.3% year over year. The tourism industry is characterized by passenger flow growing faster than consumption. The performance of scenic spot companies is further divided. Effective operating days, high-margin project operation, and second-rate conversion rates have become the key to profit release. Currently, sector stock prices have declined markedly, and market expectations have cooled down somewhat.

Demand for more than half of the summer travel season continues to strengthen, and travel costs have improved marginally

The country's civil aviation passenger flight volume increased 1.3% year on year, passenger volume increased 3.7% year on year, and passenger occupancy rate increased 1.6 pct to 86.0% year on year. As the effects of the weather subsided, flight and passenger flow recovered relatively quickly; combined with the continuous reduction in fuel surcharges and the average tax-inclusive ticket price in July falling 0.7% year on year, it is expected to support demand for the second half of the summer travel season and subsequent holidays.

The increase in the number of days during the Mid-Autumn Festival National Day holiday is expected to drive the total number of trips to continue to grow, but volume and price performance may still diverge

In 2026, there will be a total of 10 days of vacation for the two sessions, an increase of 2 days over 2025; taking 3 days off between the two sessions can form 13 consecutive days of vacation, which is expected to release demand for long-term domestic travel, outbound travel, and in-depth travel. Considering the relatively high share of short-distance and surrounding tours during the Mid-Autumn Festival and the high unit price base last year, it is expected that the growth rate of the number of tourists may still be faster than the total cost growth rate.

Autumn vacation is expanding at an accelerated pace through local pilots, which is expected to form a new parent-child travel window

During the fall vacation period in Zhejiang, Sichuan, Foshan and other places in 2025, there was a marked increase in travel orders, scenic spot tickets, and air ticket reservations, and initial verification of the driving effect on family trips, study tours, and surrounding tours. In 2026, more provinces and cities will introduce or expand autumn vacation arrangements, using 2-3 working days to connect the weekend to form a 4-5 day vacation, which is expected to further extend demand to the traditional off-season after the National Day.

Risk warning: extreme weather, consumer spending and customer unit prices falling short of expectations, outbound travel diversion