China Merchants Securities International: Lowering the target price of Xiaopeng Group-W (09868) to HK$92, optimistic about the release of potential valuations in the field of physical AI

The Zhitong Finance App learned that China Merchants Securities International released a research report saying that although the Xiaopeng Group-W (09868) car cycle has weakened in the short term, the bank is still optimistic that the company's physical AI field has huge potential to release valuations and maintain a “gain” rating. The company's net loss forecast for the 2026-28 fiscal year was raised by 45%/133%/262%, reflecting the weak product cycle in the third quarter, which dragged down performance and increased expenses due to new business development. Xiaopeng lost 1,337 billion yuan in the second quarter, about 86% higher than market expectations of 719 million yuan. There was a moderate recovery in the third quarter, and strong growth is expected in the fourth quarter. The robot's post-investment valuation exceeds 6.3 billion US dollars, and Robotaxi is expected to operate without safety personnel next year.

The report also indicated that the company directed the delivery of 115,000 to 121,000 vehicles in the third quarter, an increase of 11.3% to 17.1% over the previous quarter. MONA L03 orders are strong, but supply bottlenecks are limiting the rise in production capacity. Furthermore, Xiaopeng Robotics completed the first round of financing of 900 million US dollars, and the post-investment valuation exceeded 6.3 billion US dollars. It has become the most highly valued intelligent unicorn in China. IDG Capital led the investment, and investors such as Tencent and Ali participated. Mass production is planned by the end of 2026, and external delivery will gradually begin in 2027. The gross margin of hardware in the robotics business is expected to be significantly higher than that of automobiles, and it also has the potential for software charges. Robotaxi: More than 2,000 closed beta orders have been completed, and the goal is to carry passengers without safety personnel by 2027.