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    Mineral Resources (ASX:MIN) Shares Wrestle With Record Profit And Debt Risk

    Simply Wall St·08/27/2026 09:24:01
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    Mineral Resources stock closed at A$65.37, after a choppy week that left short term returns slightly in the red despite a strong 30 day run. The key question today is whether that move properly reflects a mining heavyweight that has just posted record FY26 revenue of A$6.5b and underlying earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation of A$2.6b.

    The market is also weighing a clean return to profitability, with underlying net profit after tax of A$822m, against memories of last year’s loss. That tension between fresh profit and lingering scepticism is driving the sentiment reset around Mineral Resources now.

    Love Mineral Resources’ record headline numbers but concerned about how durable those earnings really are after last year’s loss? Check out 12 resilient stocks with low risk scores if you want companies with steadier profiles and lower risk scores as a comparison set.

    FY 2026 Earnings Summary

    • Total Revenue (FY 2026 vs FY 2025 PCP): A$7,103m vs. A$4,472m (very large increase)
    • Net Income, Excl. Extra Items (FY 2026 vs FY 2025 PCP): A$1,061m profit vs. A$904m loss (returned to profit)
    • Basic EPS (FY 2026 vs FY 2025 PCP): A$5.37 vs. A$4.59 loss (returned to earnings per share profit)
    • Earnings from Continuing Operations (FY 2026 vs FY 2025 PCP): A$1,215m vs. A$896m loss (moved to positive continuing earnings)

    Tired of scrolling through dense earnings summaries and raw figures on Mineral Resources? Get a clearer view of the company’s full financial picture and valuation in our company report for Mineral Resources.

    ASX:MIN Trailing 12-Month Revenue & Expenses Breakdown as at Aug 2026
    ASX:MIN Trailing 12-Month Revenue & Expenses Breakdown as at Aug 2026

    Evaluating Mineral Resources’ Execution Led Bullish Story

    The bullish story around Mineral Resources hinges on large projects running hard and vertically integrated operations turning into higher quality earnings. FY26 results give that story some solid milestones. Mining Services delivered record volumes of 341 Mt and record EBITDA of A$976m with roughly 70% of the order book on contracts longer than 15 years. That lines up with the claim of long tenure and infrastructure-like cash flow that can support reinvestment.

    Onslow Iron is a key proof point. Management reports the project has reached the original 35 Mtpa capacity and is running toward 38 to 40 Mtpa with extra transshippers in place. That directly matches the earlier narrative that Onslow could exceed nameplate with limited extra capital. Lithium also moved from concept to action. Wodgina, Mt Marion and Bald Hill all have clear volume, cost and restart plans that support the vertical integration angle.

    Access the Mineral Resources analyst estimates for Mineral Resources to see where the consensus models quietly start to disagree on the next few years, and whether the surface calm at A$65.37 could hide a sharp inflection in the forecast path.

    Mineral Resources Bear Case: Execution Risks Not Fully Closed

    The bearish view on Mineral Resources argues that heavy project spend, execution risk and volatile commodities will cap upside. FY26 takes some sting out of that, but it does not shut the door. Record revenue of A$6.5b, underlying EBITDA of A$2.6b and A$822m underlying NPAT confirm that major assets like Onslow Iron and the lithium portfolio are now producing cash rather than just consuming it.

    However, the risks flagged by the bears show up in what is still unfinished. Net debt remains A$4.3b before POSCO proceeds, so the balance sheet is stronger but not yet low risk. FY27 gross CapEx guidance of A$1.425b keeps free cash flow sensitivity to commodity prices high. Lithium expansion at Mt Marion and Bald Hill increases exposure to long term demand uncertainty. The share price is up strongly over 12 months, yet the 90 day return is down 11%, which suggests the market is already questioning how durable this step up really is.

    Review Mineral Resources’ heavy debt load and projected earnings decline in context. Expose any additional structural warning signs in our risk analysis for Mineral Resources which shows 2 important warning signs.

    Stay Ahead Of Your Next Move

    If Mineral Resources’ record FY26 profit swing and choppy recent share price have your attention, register for free with Simply Wall St and add it to a Watchlist to track price against fair value and watch for a cleaner entry point. Once you are invested, use the Portfolio Command Center to cut through market noise so you only see the most important updates that could affect your returns. For a longer term edge, lean on the Community to see how other investors are thinking about the same risks and catalysts. By surfacing potential turning points early across your watchlist and portfolio, Simply Wall St helps you monitor both upside and downside signals more effectively.

    Seeking Alternatives Beyond Mineral Resources?

    Fresh ideas move fast. Some stocks are building breakout momentum while others are dropping back under the radar for now. Scan these curated shortlists before the crowd catches up and get in early.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.