Bitcoin's 80,000 mark under pressure: supply barriers resonate with ETF costs

According to Woofun AI, the current price of Bitcoin is approaching its largest supply barrier in history. This key resistance level coincides with the average holding cost of US Bitcoin spot ETF holders, and the market is facing severe tests.

The root cause is the extreme concentration of microchip distribution. According to data compiled by Woofun AI, about 8% of the total Bitcoin supply has accumulated in the $80,000 to $82,000 range, which is the most resistant region in all price bands. Specifically, Glassnode data reveals that $80,000 is the most concentrated in a single price, accounting for 5%; $82,000 is the fourth most concentrated price. In contrast, $78,000 was the second-highest concentration point, absorbing only 3.7% of supply.

This structure means that when prices rise back to this point, a large number of early buyers tend to sell unbundled, creating huge potential selling pressure.

The more critical variable is macro-financial resonance. The average holding cost of a US Bitcoin spot ETF also falls between $80,000 and $82,000, and the desire to protect capital or make a profit at the institutional level further intensifies selling pressure in the region. Looking back at history, there has been a similar high-density supply accumulation in the $60,000-$63,000 range, where more than 6% of chips have settled. The Bitcoin price fluctuated around this range for most of 2026, quickly rebounding only after a brief fall below $60,000 in the summer, establishing its position as a strong support zone.

The technical signals also point to the variable disk node. The 50-week moving average, which measures long-term trends, is currently at $81,081, and the Bitcoin price has continued to run below this moving average since November 2025.

It is worth noting that in May 2020 and March 2023, Bitcoin successfully broke through this moving average twice and started an upward trend. Whether the current historical breakthrough pattern can be replicated will be the key to determining the next trend.