Week rose 37% but stopped buying BTC, Strategy repairs financing reserves

According to Woofun AI, as the price of Bitcoin rebounded above $80,000, Strategy (MSTR.US) shares rose sharply by 37% in one week, yet the company did not make any BTC purchases in the past two weeks. This divergence triggered a deep interpretation of its strategic intentions in the market.

From a financial operational perspective, Strategy (MSTR.US) successfully sold 18.26 million shares of MSTR (MSTR.US) common shares through a market price issuance plan last week, achieving a net capital raise of about 2 billion US dollars. Currently, the company holds around 840,000 BTC, and its average cost is $753 million. At current currency prices, the book surplus has exceeded $3 billion.

According to data compiled by Woofun AI, the company's US dollar reserves plus cash pool have a total liquidity of 6.69 billion US dollars, and claims that the net leverage ratio is close to zero. Notably, although MSTR (MSTR.US) reached a high of $126.79 last week, with an increase of 37%, Bitcoin only rose by about 22% during the same period, and its stock price performance significantly outperformed underlying assets.

However, this increase was accompanied by large-scale equity dilution. In that week alone, 4.59% of the share capital was added, and since this year, MSTR (MSTR.US) as a whole has fallen by about 69% from its 52-week high. This model, which relies on rising stock prices to support valuation, makes every round of financing closely linked to market sentiment and asset price fluctuations.

The restoration of financing channels is the core logic of this adjustment. STRC (STRC.US) is Strategy (MSTR.US)'s main variable interest rate preferred stock, and its design goal is to trade at a face value of around $100. When the market was sluggish in June of this year, STRC (STRC.US) once fell to $71.25, seriously curtailing the company's ability to buy BTC through preferred stock financing. To this end, Strategy (MSTR.US) established two repurchase authorizations of $1 billion each in July to repurchase STRC (STRC.US) and MSTR (MSTR.US) common shares, respectively.

Currently, STRC (STRC.US) has 516.6 million dollars left in the buyback authorization, while the $1 billion amount of MSTR (MSTR.US) common stock repurchase has not been used yet. The company made it clear that it will not issue a new STRC (STRC.US) below $100, which means that only when the STRC (STRC.US) price recovers close to face value can low-cost financing channels be re-opened, thus providing financial ammunition for the subsequent expansion of BTC holdings.

This series of operations creates a complex logical closed loop: MSTR (MSTR.US) stock price relies on BTC rising and its own narrative support, STRC (STRC.US) is backed by MSTR (MSTR.US) financing funds, and the final export of the entire model is the long-term appreciation of BTC. If the BTC price turns downward and falls below its cost line, the surplus will turn into a floating loss, and the MSTR (MSTR.US) premium may shrink rapidly, putting pressure on STRC (STRC.US) once again. Strategy (MSTR.US) chose to suspend the upward trend above $80,000 and instead fix STRC (STRC.US) and increase its cash pool, more like saving energy for the next round of coin buying window. As Blockchain Knights pointed out, taking action when the financing channels are completely clear may indicate the real beginning of a bull market.