Bilibili (BILI) Posted Stronger Q2 Earnings, Is The Stock Still Below Fair Value?
Why Bilibili’s Latest Earnings and Buyback Caught Investor Attention
Bilibili (BILI) has just reported second quarter results alongside an update on its share repurchase activity, giving investors fresh data on profitability, cash deployment, and how management is approaching capital allocation in 2026.
Despite the improved net income and earnings per share that Bilibili reported for the second quarter and the completion of a US$49.11m buyback tranche, recent share price momentum has been weak. The stock is down 13.09% over 30 days and 37.05% year to date, while the 1 year total shareholder return shows a 28.63% decline. This contrasts with a positive 3 year total shareholder return and a much weaker 5 year record, which together indicate that shorter term sentiment has cooled even as longer term investors have experienced mixed results.
Compare Bilibili’s improving profitability with other stocks that pair earnings momentum and shareholder returns in our hand picked 45 high quality undervalued stocks.
Bilibili is now pairing improving earnings with active buybacks while the share price has retreated sharply this year. Does that combination represent a strong business at an appealing entry price, or is the stock still expensive?
Most Popular Narrative: 44% Undervalued
The most followed narrative on Bilibili values the stock at $29.65, which is well above the last close of $16.60 and frames the recent buyback against a much higher long term earnings and margin profile.
The expansion and monetization of Bilibili's creator ecosystem is creating new revenue streams through value-added services (memberships, fan charging, e-commerce), tapping into the rising demand for user-generated content and the growth of the creator economy; this supports higher ARPU and margin improvement.
Want to see what kind of revenue growth and margin lift would support that fair value? The narrative leans heavily on earnings compounding and a premium future earnings multiple. It is worth examining which profit profile and discount rate hold the model together.
Result: Fair Value of $29.65 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, this Bilibili narrative could be challenged if regulatory scrutiny in China tightens further or if AI related spending weighs on margins for longer than expected.
Find out about the key risks to this Bilibili narrative.
Another View on Bilibili’s Valuation
The first fair value estimate for Bilibili leans on detailed earnings forecasts and a premium P/E in later years. By contrast, today’s P/E of 30.4x is higher than the estimated fair ratio of 28.2x, the US Interactive Media and Services average of 13.5x and the peer average of 28.8x. That gap points to higher valuation risk if expectations cool, so which story do you think is closer to reality?
See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.
Next Steps
If the sentiment in this article feels mixed, that is intentional, as Bilibili presents both caution and potential. Move quickly to review our impartial view of the company's key bright spots in 3 key rewards.
Looking For More Investment Ideas Beyond Bilibili?
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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