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    Mizuho Financial Group (TSE:8411) Could Be 3% Undervalued After Raised Profit Guidance

    Simply Wall St·08/30/2026 08:21:25
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    Mizuho Financial Group (TSE:8411) drew fresh investor attention after Q1 FY2026 results showed a 39.1% rise in net income and a record 12.5% ROE, prompting management to lift full year profit guidance.

    Alongside the Q1 FY2026 results, Mizuho Financial Group’s share price has climbed to ¥8,486, with a 1-month share price return of 8.54% and a 90-day share price return of 17.94%. The 1-year total shareholder return of 77.89% and the very large 5-year total shareholder return suggest that momentum has been building rather than fading around the stock’s recent earnings and funding moves, including its €750m fixed to floating rate notes due 2033 and 2038 and the ongoing Radiant World legal action.

    Scan beyond Mizuho Financial Group and track other banks showing strong earnings momentum and funding activity through our hand picked list of solid balance sheet and fundamentals (41 results).

    Bulls point to Mizuho Financial Group’s record ROE, upgraded guidance and recent bond issues. Bears worry that the share price and past returns already reflect the good news. Does the current valuation still leave a margin of safety?

    Most Popular Narrative: 2.5% Undervalued

    The most followed narrative currently places Mizuho Financial Group’s fair value at ¥8,707 per share, slightly above the last close of ¥8,486. That small gap frames a valuation story built more on margins and capital returns than on rapid top line growth.

    Mizuho Financial Group is focused on growing its assets under management (AUM) and expanding product lines, which should enhance their revenue streams from wealth management and consulting services, potentially boosting future revenues. The strategic acquisitions and collaborations, such as those with Greenhill and Rakuten Securities, are expected to create new synergies and enhance the Group's competitive edge, leading to increased revenues and improved earnings.

    Read the complete narrative.

    Want to see how flat revenue expectations still support that higher fair value for Mizuho Financial Group? The narrative leans on thicker margins, buybacks and a future earnings multiple that is carefully dialed down. Curious which combination of profitability, discount rate and share count drives that conclusion.

    Result: Fair Value of ¥8,707 (UNDERVALUED)

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

    However, you still need to watch rising governance and infrastructure costs at Mizuho Financial Group, along with any setbacks in the Rakuten or Greenhill integrations.

    Find out about the key risks to this Mizuho Financial Group narrative.

    Next Steps

    If the mix of optimism and caution around Mizuho Financial Group feels finely balanced, consider acting promptly and weighing the data yourself against both sides of the debate. To see the full breakdown of risks and upsides in one place, review the 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.

    Looking for more ideas beyond Mizuho Financial Group?

    Do not stop with Mizuho Financial Group if you want a fuller opportunity set. Use the Simply Wall St screener to surface fresh stock ideas that fit your style.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.