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    AeroVironment (AVAV) Is Down 7.7% After NASA Mars Deal And New Defense Orders - What's Changed

    Simply Wall St·08/30/2026 09:26:02
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    • AeroVironment recently announced multiple developments, including a jointly funded NASA/JPL SkyFall Mars helicopter contract, a US$51.0 million U.S. Army order for Switchblade 600 loitering munitions, and the creation of AV Eagle, a Greece-based joint venture to expand its European unmanned systems footprint.
    • Together, these moves extend AeroVironment’s unmanned expertise from battlefield loitering munitions to Mars exploration while laying groundwork for localized European production and closer alignment with allied defense programs.
    • We’ll now examine how the NASA SkyFall Mars helicopter contract influences AeroVironment’s broader investment narrative and long-term growth profile.

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    AeroVironment Investment Narrative Recap

    AeroVironment’s story still hinges on whether you believe its unmanned systems portfolio can translate record contracts and backlog into improving profitability despite recent share price pressure and margin strain. The SkyFall Mars helicopter award and the new US$51.0 million Switchblade 600 order reinforce the core drone and autonomy thesis, but they do not directly resolve the biggest near term concern around integrating BlueHalo and stabilizing gross margins.

    Among the recent updates, the SkyFall Mars helicopter contract is most relevant here because it highlights AeroVironment’s technical depth in autonomy, rotorcraft design and mission critical avionics. That same expertise underpins its defense offerings and could matter for future high value programs that are central to the contract driven catalyst story. In contrast, the AV Eagle joint venture and European expansion speak more to the longer term push to rebalance the heavy U.S. revenue dependence.

    Yet behind these contract wins, investors should still be watching the pressure on margins and integration costs...

    Read the full narrative on AeroVironment (it's free!)

    AeroVironment's narrative projects $3.0 billion revenue and $160.6 million earnings by 2029. This requires 14.3% yearly revenue growth and an earnings increase of about $426 million from -$265.1 million today.

    Uncover how AeroVironment's forecasts yield a $225.77 fair value, a 53% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    AVAV 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    AVAV 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Some of the most optimistic analysts already expected AeroVironment to reach about US$3.3 billion in revenue and roughly US$276 million in earnings by 2029, but they lean heavily on rapid AI driven defense adoption and expanding free cash flow, while the latest SkyFall and Switchblade news could either reinforce or challenge just how quickly that more aggressive story plays out.

    Explore 10 other fair value estimates on AeroVironment - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.