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    AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) Could Be 66% Undervalued As Satellite Rollout Progress Continues

    Simply Wall St·08/30/2026 18:23:01
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    AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) is back in focus after the company reported full deployment of its BlueBird satellites 12 and 13, along with a new satellite gateway going live in New Zealand.

    Despite this operational progress, AST SpaceMobile’s share price has come under pressure, with the stock down 45.1% over the past 90 days and 30.5% year to date. However, its 3 year total shareholder return remains very large, pointing to strong momentum over a longer horizon.

    Spot 19 high quality undiscovered gems that, like AST SpaceMobile, are pushing ambitious growth plans while still flying under many investors' radar.

    Bulls point to AST SpaceMobile’s rapid satellite rollout and long term shareholder gains. Bears focus on widening losses and rate sensitivity after the recent selloff. Which side does the current valuation evidence lean toward next?

    Most Popular Narrative: 65.9% Undervalued

    The latest narrative fair value on AST SpaceMobile of $170 sits well above the last close at $58.05. That gap is associated with a very optimistic long term story according to HedgeY.

    The bull case is that AST is transitioning from technology demonstration to commercial rollout. The company reported Q1 2026 revenue of $14.7 million, reiterated 2026 revenue guidance of $150 to $200 million, and expects revenue to build sequentially through the year from gateway sales, government work, consulting, and potentially initial commercial service revenue.

    Read the complete narrative. Read the complete narrative.

    Want to see what sits behind that $170 fair value for AST SpaceMobile? The narrative emphasizes rapid revenue expansion, rising contract visibility and a future earnings profile more in line with mature telecom infrastructure giants.

    Result: Fair Value of $170 (UNDERVALUED)

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

    However, AST SpaceMobile’s narrative still hinges on tight execution and carrier follow through, so satellite deployment delays or slower monetization could quickly challenge that $170 view.

    Find out about the key risks to this AST SpaceMobile narrative.

    Another View on AST SpaceMobile’s Valuation

    While the narrative fair value for AST SpaceMobile leans heavily on a story of long term potential, the SWS DCF model also points to upside. At $58.05, the stock sits below an estimated future cash flow value of $155.80, which also implies an undervalued setup. So what is the market so worried about?

    Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

    ASTS Discounted Cash Flow as at Aug 2026
    ASTS Discounted Cash Flow as at Aug 2026

    Next Steps

    Mixed signals on AST SpaceMobile so far. If you want to act before the next headline, review both sides of the story and weigh the 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs.

    Looking for more investment ideas beyond AST SpaceMobile?

    If you only focus on AST SpaceMobile, you could miss other compelling setups. Use the Simply Wall St Screener to quickly surface stocks that match your style and risk limits.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.