CITIC Construction Investment 2026H1 Black Electricity and Panel Industry Summary: Structural Upgrading Accelerates High-End Chinese Brands
The Zhitong Finance App learned that CITIC Construction Investment released a research report saying that 2026H1 global TV demand recovered moderately, with significant regional differentiation, weak recovery in Europe and the US, high growth in emerging markets, and the contraction of domestic stocks depended on structural upgrading. The panel side showed a trend of volume reduction and area increase, and the average size increased. The market share of mainland Chinese manufacturers exceeded 70%, dominated by the oligopolies of BOE (000725.SZ) and TCL Huaxing. The competitive landscape is concentrated at the top, and the differentiation between Chinese and Korean brands has intensified, and TCL and Hisense have achieved both increases in share and profit through high-end and globalization. The product side has a large screen and miniLED volume, and the Chinese brand has a first-mover advantage. Panel prices fell in Q3 to ease cost pressure, and there is still room to improve the share and profit margins of Chinese panel manufacturers and black power brands in the medium to long term.
CITIC Construction Investment's main views are as follows:
Industry demand: 2026H1 global TV shipments achieved slight positive growth. Sporting event preparation and channel inventory support the boom in the first half of the year, and regional performance is significantly divided. The European and American markets benefited from competition and stock replacement to achieve a weak recovery, but inflationary stickiness and high interest rates suppressed optional consumption, and recovery flexibility was limited; emerging markets achieved high growth by relying on increased penetration rates and channel sinking and supply bias for domestic brands; the total domestic market was under pressure, and growth was entirely due to product structure upgrades. The panel side showed a trend of volume reduction and area increase, and the average size increased.
Competition pattern: The trend of machine end concentration continues. Small and medium-sized brands are being squeezed out at an accelerated pace, and the total share of TOP6 brands has increased. The global share of Chinese brands has exceeded 40%, leading the growth rate of TCL shipments, and competition with Hisense for the second position in the world is heated; Korean brand share growth is weak; panel-side production capacity is concentrated in mainland China at an accelerated pace, dominated by BOE and TCL Huaxing. The increase in Chinese brand share comes from the rise in brand power brought about by iteration of high-end product power such as MiniLED, deep cultivation of overseas localization channels, vertical integration of supply chains, and continuous sports marketing. The trend of medium- to long-term concentration of leaders will continue, and the share of Chinese brands is expected to continue to expand.
Comparison of financial reports between Chinese and Korean brands: The profit differentiation between Chinese and Korean black power companies was highlighted in 2026H1. The revenue and profit of TCL Electronics and Hisense Video improved simultaneously. The core benefits were the increased share of MiniLED and large-size products, the supply chain advantages of self-made panels/modules, and internal cost control optimization. On the other hand, under pressure from Korean manufacturers, Samsung TV's home appliance business turned a loss in Q2. The profit margin of the LG TV business was only 4.3%, constrained by fluctuations in the cost of LCD panels purchased externally, product strategies, and organizational operation efficiency.
Industry outlook: Short-term 2026H2 global TV and panel shipments face high base pressure, and the industry as a whole enters a stock game; there is limited room for medium- to long-term total growth, but structural opportunities are outstanding. The dominant concentration in the pattern continues to rise, and the share of Chinese manufacturers and Chinese brands is expected to rise further; MiniLED penetration rate continues to rise, and RGB/SQD MiniLED is gradually commercialized. At the profit level, the gross profit margin and net interest rate of China's black power and panel companies have room for continuous improvement. Korean profits may remain low, and profit differentiation may expand further.
Risk Alerts
1) Decline in market demand: The global TV market has entered a stage of stock competition. Market demand overdraft effects in developed countries and regions such as Europe, America, and Japan are gradually showing. At the same time, high inflation has led to a decline in residents' actual purchasing power, and demand for TV shipments will continue to be sluggish. According to Qunzhi Consulting data, global TV shipments in 2025 are expected to be 221 million units (YOY -0.7%); according to Lotu Technology data, China's TV shipments in 2025 will be 32.895 million units (YOY -8.5%). Looking forward to the future, it is unlikely that the TV market environment will fundamentally change.
2) Panel price rebound: Inventory of top panel manufacturers continues to decline, and combined production cuts have increased, supporting market supply and demand. According to AVC Revo data, the price of TV panels of various sizes began to stop falling in October 2022, and then experienced a slight increase in price. Compared with early October 2022, the average price of 75/65/55/50/43/32 inch TV panels increased by a total of 72/73/52/40/17/10 US dollars until June 2024.
3) RMB exchange rate fluctuations: Long-term exchange rate fluctuations will affect the business strategies of foreign trade enterprises. The US dollar exchange rate fluctuates greatly in the short term. According to data from the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center, the current spot exchange rate of the US dollar to the RMB is around 6.7.