Huachuang Securities: The liquor industry has the potential and motivation to expand, and companies that are optimistic about advantages take the lead in seizing opportunities

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Huachuang Securities released a research report saying that the liquor industry has the potential and momentum to expand due to the resonance of supply and demand, and it is estimated that the scale is expected to rise to 100 billion dollars in the next 5 years. The business momentum of the industry's leading wine is improving, and its popularity continues to rise and extend to categories. At the same time, liquor sales are under relative pressure. Leading liquor companies have increased their card slot layout to a second growth curve. In 2026, their strategic focus on health alcohol has increased markedly. It is expected that they will reuse brand/channel advantages in the future to achieve breakthroughs and expansion. Optimistic enterprises with outstanding comprehensive competitive strength and actively seeking change will take the lead in seizing opportunities for industry expansion.

The main views of Huachuang Securities are as follows:

Liquor: China's third-largest type of wine, Pu Yu Hun Jin, but the degree of industry standardization and capitalization is low

As a native Chinese wine that can be traced back to the Shang Dynasty, liquor carries the essence of the “same origin of medicine and food” of the ancestors of China, and is based on rice wine or white wine, integrating the essence of grass, wood, and stone. However, this ancient wine, which has been accumulated for thousands of years, did not begin the industrialization transformation from folk brewing to modern consumer goods until the end of the 20th century, and has experienced twists and turns from barbaric growth to standardization and rectification, and from low prices to slow upgrading over the past 40 years. By 2025, the liquor market is expected to exceed 80 billion yuan, making it the third largest wine category in China. The industry has gradually gained popularity in recent years, but the degree of standardization and capitalization of the industry still lags significantly behind volume expansion, showing the characteristics of being “big but not strong”. The core is that the boundaries of category perception are vague, the stereotypical narrative that has long been locked in nourishing the middle-aged and elderly, and the lack of scientific claims of efficacy forms a bottleneck in value demonstration.

Old trees can also sprout. Focus on the triple development opportunities of drinking alcohol in the context of the new drinking era

The changing times are providing an unprecedented historical opportunity for alcohol wine. First, on the demand side, the confluence of the two major consumption concepts of health and self-indulgence is reshaping the underlying logic of the Chinese alcohol market. The business scene tied to traditional alcohol is weakening, and the new drinking scene aimed at self-drinking and casual socialization is rapidly expanding. Second, on the supply side, along with the growing popularity of the liquor industry, more players are entering, and many leading liquor companies have stepped up the alcohol circuit in an attempt to create a second growth curve with the advantage of reusing brands and channels; Jinpai has achieved a break-round transition from traditional health wine to light health alcohol with the channel revolution of unsaturated sales and the phenomenal cultivation of Xiaohongshu. Third, on the policy side, the 2021 edition of the national standard classifies alcohol as an independent type of alcohol, and the standards are more standardized. The government actively promotes the development of various health industries, providing the industry with dual institutional support for standardization and health.

Industrial development is on the rise. 2025 to 2030 is a key window period for expansion from “brand fever” to “category fever”. 100 billion racetracks can be expected

The scale of the liquor industry in 22-25 was about 10%, and the phenomenal breaking circle in '25 led to a further increase in the popularity of the industry. The external conditions for the expansion of alcohol are ripe. Judging that 26-30 years is a critical period of increase in the scale of the industry. Looking ahead to the next five years, the liquor industry is expected to enter the 100 billion dollar circuit. 1) If the brand popularity continues in the next five years and the top 2-3 brands expand, the industry mainly relies on natural growth in the middle to low single digits of traditional nourishment demand, and the scale of the racetrack is expected to expand slightly to 90 billion +. 2) If popularity extends to categories in the next five years, on the one hand, Yinfa's economy expands to provide a basic market; on the other hand, it relies on the dual attributes of health+low alcohol consumption to increase the proportion of young and middle-aged consumers. New alcohol drinking boundaries are opened up, which is expected to divert part of the demand for liquor and beer. Based on a compound growth rate of 6-10%, the scale of the industry is expected to exceed 100 billion in 2030.

Four types of players: Chunchao Competition has its own strengths, promotes industrial expansion, and Jinsha takes the lead in breaking the circle

Traditional liquor companies: The market base is good, and strong liquor is leading breakneck growth. This type of enterprise is a core player in the industry, and has been deeply involved in the market for many years and is basically good. Leading Jinpai achieved phenomenal breakers in 25 years and bucked the trend and emerged from the independent market. What is behind this is that the company has stepped on the frontline of health and self-indulgence + insists on safeguarding channel profits, unsaturated sales, and continuous innovative marketing. Currently, the core product trend continues. Yedao is an old brand. It is deeply involved in South China. Recently, it has upgraded its products, and its youthfulness results have yet to be verified.

Famous liquor companies: Brand/channel/capital advantages can be reused to cultivate a second growth curve across borders. In recent years, famous liquors such as Maowu Lüfen have strengthened their layout. Their comprehensive management advantage is superior to other players, but internal strategic attention is generally low, and collaboration between categories is also somewhat difficult to implement.

Pharmaceutical companies: Professional endorsements, efficacy are more easily recognized, and large distribution channel capabilities need to be verified. Pharmaceutical companies have professional endorsements in formulation development, quality control, and efficacy recognition, making it easier to gain the trust of consumers. However, there is a lack of experience in mass consumer goods operations, and distribution channel capabilities and youthful marketing capabilities have yet to be verified.

Emerging enterprises: Better than innovative marketing, the customer base is basically good. Emerging enterprises, such as Meijian, are known for their low profile, high value and social communication, and have outstanding innovation and promotion capabilities. They are an important force in category consumer education, but their efficacy is weak, brand accumulation is insufficient, and long-term competitiveness has yet to be verified.

Implications for liquor companies

The trend of diversification is more clear. The initial proposal is to strengthen product card marketing and use business advantages to create a second growth pole in the medium term. The bank judged that future alcohol consumption will show a diversified trend, and it is strategically significant for traditional wine companies to lay out and cultivate a second growth curve ahead of time. If the brand continues to be popular for the next 5 years, there is relatively limited room for growth in the liquor industry. At this time, more emphasis is placed on differentiated product marketing to seize part of the market share. If the popularity of the category increases, wine companies should increase their strategic importance and strengthen the promotion of new categories in line with their products, channels, and business advantages.

Risk warning: Competition in the industry intensifies, alcohol demand performance falls short of expectations, youth promotion falls short of expectations, etc.