Guojin Securities: Non-ferrous metal exports and supply constraints resonate, the proposal revolves around four main lines

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guojin Securities released a research report saying that China's copper demand stabilized in July, and cumulative actual demand continued to grow positively in January-July. In anticipation of the resumption of production in the Middle East and the commencement of production in Indonesia, aluminum prices have declined somewhat, and the domestic and foreign price gap has narrowed, but external demand is more resilient. In July, lithium carbonate meters need to continue to grow rapidly, and energy storage resonates with the export chain. The proposal revolves around four main lines: one is the rebalancing of supply and demand due to the stabilization of demand for copper in July and the contraction of imports of US terminal products; second, price support brought about by a recovery in aluminum watch demand, high exports of aluminum and aluminum products, and low overseas inventories; third, profit recovery due to falling steel raw material costs and export substitution; and fourth, demand elasticity brought about by high growth in lithium carbonate energy storage and export chains.

Guojin Securities's main views are as follows:

Copper: China's demand stabilized in July, while actual US demand was still weak in June

In July 2026, China's apparent demand for copper was 1.44,000 tons, -1% year-on-year and -12% month-on-month; actual copper demand was 1.01 million tons, flat year-on-year and -14% month-on-month. Cumulatively, in January-July, China's apparent demand was 10.114 million tons, +3% year over year; actual demand was 7.22 million tons, +2% year over year. The cumulative actual demand continued to grow positively.

U.S. copper demand in June was 216,000 tons, -14% year over month, +4% month on month; actual copper demand was 413,000 tons, -18% year over year and +5% month on month. In the first 6 months, apparent demand was 1.475,000 tons, +3% year over year, and actual demand was 2.48 million tons, -16% year over year; imports of copper products are still significantly lower than the same period last year, and weak demand has not been reversed.

Aluminum: watches need to be restored, and exports of aluminum & aluminum products are impressive

In July 2026, China's apparent demand for aluminum was 4.277 million tons, +10% year-on-year and +2% month-on-month; actual demand for aluminum was 2.915 million tons, -4% year-on-year. Cumulatively, in January-July, China's apparent demand for aluminum was 276.23 million tons, +1% year-on-year, continuing to pick up; actual demand for aluminum was 19974 million tons, down 5% year on year.

The export side performed well. Aluminum exports in July were 517,000 tons, +19% YoY and 55,000 tons/month over month; January-July accumulated 3.384 million tons, +15% YoY. In July, 465,000 tons of aluminum products were exported, +25% year over month, 47,000 tons; in January-July, the cumulative total was 2,935,000 tons, +18%. In anticipation of the resumption of production in the Middle East and the start of production in Indonesia, aluminum prices declined somewhat, and the domestic and foreign price gap narrowed, but external demand was more resilient.

Steel: Iron ore continues to relax, the gap widens after the coking coal accident, and equipment exports provide resilience

The raw material side showed a loosening of iron ore and a tightening differentiation of coking coal. In January-July, imports of iron concentrate from Australia and Brazil increased by +4.2% year-on-year, while imports from Guinea increased by 6.118 million tons; domestic iron concentrate imports increased by -11.0% year-on-year. According to the cumulative caliber of coking coal, imports can still cover the reduction in domestic production, but after the accident, domestic coking coal decreased by 11.082 million tons year on year. Mongolian coal only increased by 3.712 million tons with no month-on-month increase. The gap between supply and demand was clearly insufficient; the gap between supply and demand was mainly buffered by hidden stocks.

There is still significant differentiation on the demand side. Real domestic demand for steel in January-July was -4.1% year-on-year, a decrease of 25.125 million tons. Infrastructure, automobile and other demand were the main drag; demand for household appliances, energy, chemicals, and ships was +16.5%, +48.9%, and +14.2%, respectively. Direct exports accumulated -4.4% year-on-year, but +2.8% year-on-year in July; hidden exports were +2.7% YoY, an increase of 2.161 million tons, and equipment exports continued to cushion domestic demand pressure.

Lithium carbonate: July watch needs to continue high growth, energy storage resonates with the export chain

In July 2026, lithium meters required 138,000 tons, +71% year-on-year; in the previous July, the meter required 896,000 tons, +62% year-on-year, continuing high growth. In July, total indirect exports were 49,000 tons, +85% year over year; actual domestic lithium demand was 89,000 tons, +64% year over year. Cumulatively, total indirect exports in the first 7 months were 282,000 tons, +78% year-on-year; actual domestic demand was 614,000 tons, +56% year-on-year.

On the domestic demand side, the total amount of power, energy storage, and consumption in the first 7 months was 507,000 tons, +25% over the same period; of these, energy storage was 198,000 tons, +76% over the same period, an increase of 86,000 tons, which was the main increase in domestic demand. According to material flow estimates, industrial chain inventories increased by about 107,000 tons in the first 7 months; in July, they increased by 50,000 tons in a single month, and overall inventory changes narrowed in May-July.

Risk Alerts

The recovery in macroeconomic demand fell short of expectations; changes in US tariffs and trade policies; energy prices and geopolitical disturbances exceeded expectations; and commodity prices fluctuated abnormally.