Guojin Securities: Short-term pressure concentrated release, waiting for the gradual improvement of home appliance operations
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guojin Securities released a research report saying that domestic demand for home appliances is weak, compounded by rising prices of raw materials such as copper and aluminum, and exchange losses caused by the appreciation of the RMB, putting pressure on the sector's profitability. The bank proposes to lay out a black power sector where the domestic demand structure is upgraded and the global high-end breakthrough logic continues to be implemented; focusing on fundamentals, which are expected to usher in high-quality white power dividend assets with stable performance; going overseas for new consumers with significant advantages in global competition, and is optimistic about smart imaging and consumer-grade NAS tracks with outstanding growth.
Guojin Securities's main views are as follows:
Home appliances sector
26H1 revenue was basically flat, and profits were under phased pressure. 26H1 household appliance sector revenue and net profit attributable to mother were -0.2% and -6.5%, respectively. Of these, 26Q2 was -0.2% and -5.1%, respectively. Weak domestic demand, compounded by rising prices of raw materials such as copper and aluminum, and exchange losses caused by the appreciation of the RMB, put pressure on the sector's profitability.
White electricity
Domestic sales are weak, overseas is steady, and comprehensive leading management is more resilient. Domestic demand in 26Q2 was affected by a high base and cool summer weather. Sales of air conditioners were under relative pressure, and overseas demand for cold washing continued to grow well. The profit side is less affected by raw materials and exchange than revenue, but leaders actively hedge it through supply chain optimization, organizational efficiency improvement, and cost control. Among them, Midea's performance is the most steady. Looking ahead, the domestic and foreign sales schedule for air conditioners will gradually improve, the year-on-year pressure on superimposed raw materials may weaken, and profits are expected to recover marginally.
Black electricity
Structural upgrades and global breakthroughs continue to be realized. Domestic color TV sales are weak overall, but the penetration of high-end products such as Mini LED has accelerated, and the increase in average prices supports revenue; overseas, driven by sporting events, high-end product sales, and channel structure upgrades, volume and price increases sharply. The profitability of Hisense Vision and TCL Electronics continues to improve, and the competitiveness of Chinese brands in the global high-end market continues to improve.
Kitchen appliances and small appliances
Demand is still bottoming out, and sector performance is clearly divided. Demand for traditional kitchen appliances and integrated stoves continues to be under pressure, and revenue and profits have dropped significantly; traditional small kitchen appliances are generally weak, and the export chain is currently fragmented. Cleaning appliances are relatively popular, and Covos and Stone Technology are performing better.
Risk warning: risk of domestic and foreign demand fluctuation, raw material price fluctuation risk, increased industry competition, risk of exchange rate fluctuation, tariff risk