U.S. stock futures were lower on Monday, as the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices fell, following Friday’s lower close.
Geopolitical and trade anxieties spiked over the weekend following U.S. military strikes on Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island near the Strait of Hormuz, which triggered Iranian missile and drone retaliation against U.S. air bases in Jordan on Sunday. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump intensified trade tensions by calling Canada "the worst" for trade abuses and asserting his tariffs have "saved" the U.S. auto industry.
The market will turn toward key economic indicators this week, highlighted by Friday’s crucial August employment data. Investors will also be tracking a busy earnings lineup this week, featuring top AI infrastructure providers such as Dell Technologies Inc. (NYSE:DELL), Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. (NYSE:HPE), and Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGO), along with cybersecurity leader Palo Alto Networks Inc. (NASDAQ:PANW).
On Friday, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh used his first Jackson Hole address to warn investors that the fight against inflation remains far from finished. He delivered a hawkish message: inflation remains too high, the labor market is effectively at full employment, and financial conditions may not be restraining the economy much at all.
The 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.71%, and the two-year bond was at 4.31%. The CME Group’s FedWatch tool projections show markets pricing a 61.9% likelihood of the Federal Reserve hiking the current interest rates during its September meeting.
| Index | Performance (+/-) |
| Dow Jones | -0.09% |
| S&P 500 | -0.13% |
| Nasdaq 100 | -0.04% |
| Russell 2000 | 0.11% |
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, respectively, were lower in premarket on Monday. The SPY was down 0.12% at $768.44, while the QQQ declined by 0.043% to $716.74.
Consumer discretionary and communication services stocks bucked the overall market trend to end higher on Friday, while most S&P 500 sectors closed lower, led down by information technology, utilities, and industrials.
| Index | Performance (+/-) | Value |
| Dow Jones | -0.018% | 53.559,99 |
| S&P 500 | -0.25% | 7.711,76 |
| Nasdaq Composite | -0.52% | 26,26.402,42541.35 |
| Russell 2000 | -1.39% | 2.972,37 |
Mohamed El-Erian highlights a market caught between “a tug-of-war between top-down macro policy and bottom-up corporate earnings”. While robust corporate fundamentals continue to cushion sentiment—driven by big tech performers like Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Broadcom—underlying structural pressures threaten broader market stability.
El-Erian observes that U.S. equities face significant crosscurrents, particularly from sovereign debt dynamics. Rising U.S. yields—with the 10-year at 4.73% and 30-year at 5.20%—reflect growing “flow-of-funds strain facing the US bond market,” exacerbated by foreign sales of U.S. securities.
Although the Treasury’s impulse to suppress long-end yields is understandable to protect housing and consumer affordability, El-Erian warns of “valid warnings of market distortion and unintended systemic side effects.”
On policy, Federal Reserve Chair Warsh’s debut Jackson Hole address delivered a “hawkish” assessment. Markets now price in an increased probability of a September rate hike, as domestic macro signals remain mixed. With key data like the August Employment Report on the horizon, El-Erian expects ongoing volatility across energy, foreign exchange, and sovereign yields to dictate near-term direction.
Here’s what investors will be keeping an eye on this week.
Crude Oil WTI futures were trading higher in the early New York session by 3.45% to hover around $86.34 per barrel.
Gold Spot US Dollar fell 0.37% to hover around $4,438.70 per ounce. The U.S. Dollar Index spot was 0.13% lower at the 99.5690 level.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) was trading 0.50% higher at $78,411.64 per coin over the last 24 hours.
Asian markets were mixed on Monday, as South Korea’s Kospi and China’s CSI 300 indices rose. Australia’s ASX 200, India’s Nifty 50, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 indices fell. European markets were mixed in early trading.
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