LifeVantage Corporation (NASDAQ:LFVN) Consensus Forecasts Have Become A Little Darker Since Its Latest Report
LifeVantage Corporation (NASDAQ:LFVN) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 7.1% to US$6.36 in the week after its latest annual results. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of US$183m were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 4.8% to hit US$0.40 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from two analysts covering LifeVantage is for revenues of US$167.8m in 2027. This implies a chunky 8.1% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to tumble 75% to US$0.10 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$178.4m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.39 in 2027. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a large cut to earnings per share numbers.
View our latest analysis for LifeVantage
The average price target climbed 7.1% to US$7.50despite the reduced earnings forecasts, suggesting that this earnings impact could be a positive for the stock, once it passes.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. Over the past five years, revenues have declined around 0.7% annually. Worse, forecasts are essentially predicting the decline to accelerate, with the estimate for an annualised 8.1% decline in revenue until the end of 2027. Compare this against analyst estimates for companies in the broader industry, which suggest that revenues (in aggregate) are expected to grow 3.7% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, the analysts also expect LifeVantage to suffer worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for LifeVantage. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2029, which can be seen for free on our platform here.
Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 5 warning signs for LifeVantage (1 is potentially serious) you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.