Uncontrolled US debt intensifies capital outflows, Bitcoin options bet $100,000 in 2026

According to Woofun AI, the uncontrolled size of US federal debt is reshaping Bitcoin's upward logic. “Kobeissi Letter” points out that this macro variable has made the investment value of hard assets stand out significantly.

The deterioration in fiscal discipline is evident in the data comparison. The US primary budget deficit accounts for 3.59% of GDP. This ratio ranks first among major developed countries, even surpassing Japan. Notably, this indicator does not include interest expenses; it only reflects the gap between income and expenditure, thus revealing more simply the nature of uncontrolled expenses. Robin Brooks, a senior researcher at the Brookings Institution and a former chief economist at the International Finance Association, warned that the market is losing patience with highly indebted countries, and capital flows to low-debt safe havens such as Switzerland and Denmark are speeding up.

Data compiled by Woofun AI showed that this capital outflow forced the market to demand higher risk compensation, leading to continued upward pressure on US Treasury yields, no matter how the Treasury intervened.

Rising yields usually suppress unprofitable assets such as stocks and gold and Bitcoin, but when the driving factor changes to debt fears, safe-haven demand instead becomes a supporting force. Bitcoin rose 23% and gold rose 10% this month, confirming this logic. The non-farm payrolls data released this week and the resulting fluctuation in expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike in September will further amplify asset price volatility.

Derivatives market signals confirm long-term bullish sentiment. In the Bitcoin options market, call option nominal open contracts in the $80,000-$100,000 execution price range are worth billions of dollars. This distribution indicates that capital is heavily betting that BTC will break the $100,000 mark in the last four months of 2026, which is the clearest determination of the market's future price path following a shift in the macro narrative.