Meituan (HKG:3690) Just Released Its Second-Quarter Earnings: Here's What Analysts Think
Meituan (HKG:3690) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 4.6% to HK$78.90 in the week after its latest second-quarter results. Overall the results were a little better than the analysts were expecting, with revenues beating forecasts by 3.9%to hit CN¥105b. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Meituan's 37 analysts is for revenues of CN¥417.5b in 2026. This reflects a decent 9.0% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 89% to CN¥0.66. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥402.1b and losses of CN¥1.75 per share in 2026. There's been a pretty noticeable increase in sentiment, with the analysts upgrading revenues and making a considerable decrease in loss per share in particular.
View our latest analysis for Meituan
Despite these upgrades,the analysts have not made any major changes to their price target of HK$110, implying that their latest estimates don't have a long term impact on what they think the stock is worth. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Meituan at HK$153 per share, while the most bearish prices it at HK$57.37. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Meituan'shistorical trends, as the 19% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 is roughly in line with the 18% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 8.9% per year. So although Meituan is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at HK$110, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Meituan going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..
You can also see our analysis of Meituan's Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.