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    Will Holmen’s (OM:HOLM B) Profitability Squeeze Amid Rising Sales Recast Its Core Investment Narrative?

    Simply Wall St·09/01/2026 15:26:34
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    • In August 2026, Holmen AB reported second-quarter results showing sales of SEK 5,632 million, modestly higher than a year earlier, while net income eased to SEK 510 million and earnings per share from continuing operations slipped to SEK 3.3.
    • Across the first half of 2026, sales of SEK 11,105 million and lower earnings per share of SEK 7.4 highlighted that profitability, rather than revenue, was the main pressure point for Holmen.
    • With quarterly net income down even as sales inched higher, we’ll now consider how this profitability squeeze reshapes Holmen’s investment narrative.

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    Holmen Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Holmen, you need to believe in the long term value of its forests and the shift toward renewable, fibre based materials, even if shorter term profits fluctuate. The latest results show modestly softer earnings rather than a collapse in demand, so the most immediate catalyst remains any relief in input costs, while the key risk is that weak wood product and board pricing combine with elevated log and energy costs to keep margins under pressure.

    Among recent announcements, the May 2026 launch of Holmen Elevate Flute, an ultra lightweight, food approved containerboard made at the low carbon Braviken mill, is especially relevant. It ties directly into the sustainable packaging theme that underpins the long term case, while also offering a potential offset to profitability pressure if higher value, lighter grades can improve mix and support earnings as volumes and pricing evolve.

    Yet, against that promise, investors should also be aware that prolonged low electricity prices and curtailments could leave Holmen’s Renewable Energy arm...

    Read the full narrative on Holmen (it's free!)

    Holmen's narrative projects SEK21.9 billion revenue and SEK2.5 billion earnings by 2029.

    Uncover how Holmen's forecasts yield a SEK345.56 fair value, a 5% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    OM:HOLM B 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    OM:HOLM B 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Some of the most optimistic analysts expected Holmen to reach about SEK 23.8 billion in revenue and SEK 3.1 billion in earnings, but after a softer quarter and with the risk of structurally low power prices in northern Sweden still on the table, you can see how their far more upbeat story might diverge sharply from the more cautious consensus view.

    Explore 2 other fair value estimates on Holmen - why the stock might be worth as much as 5% more than the current price!

    The Verdict Is Yours

    Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.