Where Does Megaport (ASX:MP1) Valuation Sit After Earnings And 2027 Guidance?
What the latest Megaport earnings and guidance mean for investors
Megaport (ASX:MP1) has drawn fresh attention after releasing full year 2026 results alongside new revenue guidance for fiscal 2027. This gives investors updated data on growth, profitability and future expectations.
The company reported full year sales of A$312.19 million for the period ended 30 June 2026, compared with A$227.06 million a year earlier. Management also outlined an expected revenue range of A$620 million to A$730 million for fiscal 2027, which now becomes a key reference point for how you might think about the stock.
Megaport's latest earnings and 2027 revenue guidance landed alongside a mixed share price pattern, with the stock up 38.88% on a year to date share price return but with a 30 day share price return down 5.47%. This suggests momentum has cooled recently even as the 3 year total shareholder return of 48.86% points to a stronger longer term record.
The 3.45% 1 day share price return following the announcement hints that investors may be reassessing Megaport's growth potential and risk profile in light of the larger reported net loss and the sizeable revenue range set out for fiscal 2027.
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Megaport's recent share price pause sits between two stories. One is a business lifting sales while still reporting a larger loss. The other is sentiment reacting to a wide revenue guide. The valuation now needs a closer look.
Most Popular Narrative: 23.7% Undervalued
The most followed Megaport narrative currently points to a fair value of A$22.41 per share, compared with the last close of A$17.11. This frames the latest earnings and guidance against a higher long term earnings and margin profile.
Megaport is positioned to benefit from the accelerated adoption of cloud, AI, and data-centric digital transformation, driving strong demand for agile, scalable interconnection and networking solutions. This is described as a catalyst for ongoing annual recurring revenue (ARR) and top-line revenue growth.
The rapid geographic and product expansion, such as the addition of 115 new data centers and numerous new on-ramps and services (Internet, Global WAN, Security), is described as substantially increasing Megaport's addressable market and depth with existing clients, supporting both ARR expansion and higher customer stickiness. According to this view, this setup supports outperformance in revenue and long-term gross margins.
Want to see how this growth story turns into a higher fair value for Megaport? The narrative leans on rapid revenue expansion, rising margins and a richer earnings profile. Curious which specific future numbers sit behind that conclusion? The full narrative lays out those assumptions in detail.
Result: Fair Value of A$22.41 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, this Megaport narrative could be challenged if hyperscalers bring more connectivity in house or if intense pricing pressure erodes margins faster than expected.
Find out about the key risks to this Megaport narrative.
Another view on Megaport's valuation
The fair value narrative for Megaport leans on long term earnings growth, yet the market is currently paying a P/S of 12.9x. That is far above the Global IT industry at 1.3x and below peers at 20.7x. It also sits under a fair ratio of 14.7x, which the market could move towards over time.
If that gap closes, investors are weighing whether it narrows through stronger fundamentals or through a lower multiple. The question is which path is more realistic for Megaport over a given time horizon, and how much valuation risk an investor is comfortable carrying.
See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.
Next Steps
Mixed signals on Megaport can be confusing, so move quickly, review the underlying data and weigh both sides. To see both the cautious and optimistic signals in one place, take a closer look at the 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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