Kerui Real Estate: The weakening of new housing transactions in August, the resilience of second-hand housing highlights the decline in land premium rates
The Zhitong Finance App learned that in August 2026, Kerui Real Estate published an article stating that in August 2026, the transaction area of newly built commercial residential buildings in 50 key cities across the country was about 9.33 million square meters, a year-on-year decline of 16.4%. The market was once again under pressure due to the double drag of the traditional low season of sales and continued contraction in supply. Against the backdrop of a year-on-year decline in new housing transactions, second-hand housing continued to maintain positive growth with price advantages and transaction flexibility. In August, the second-hand housing transaction area in the country's 20 key cities was about 14.51 million square meters, an increase of 8.8% over the previous year. The increase was basically the same as last month. From January to August, the cumulative transaction area was about 125.09 million square meters, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 6.9%. Second-hand housing was significantly ahead of new housing in terms of volume and growth rate, and the dominant position of second-hand housing continued to strengthen. In terms of the land market, judging from the popularity of the market, the average premium rate fell back to 7.68% this month, down 7.25 percentage points from July, but still 1.51 percentage points higher than the same period last year.
New housing supply
The year-on-year decline was double, and the year-on-year decline increased, and the cumulative year-on-year decline in the previous 8 months was 23.3% year-on-year
In August 2026, the new supply area for newly built commercial housing in 50 key cities across the country was about 6.17 million square meters, down 10.0% from the previous month. The decline was 22.4 pcts narrower than the previous month; the year-on-year decline was 31.8%, an increase of 6.9 pcts over the previous month, and the supply scale continued to shrink and declined again. The cumulative supply area in January-August was about 61.09 million square meters, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 23.3%, an increase of 1.1 pcts compared to January-July. Against the backdrop of “determining production by sales” logic and a slowdown in the pace of promotion by housing enterprises, the supply side remained restrained in August, and support for transactions was further weakened by additional supply.
Figure 1 Changes in the monthly new supply area of newly built commercial housing in 50 key cities across the country from January 2025 to August 2026
Judging from the performance of cities at various energy levels, the supply area of first-tier cities in August was about 940,000 square meters, a slight decrease of 1.1% month-on-month and 35.9% year-on-year. The cumulative supply in the first August was 9.08 million square meters, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 29.2%. The decline was the highest among all energy levels. Among them, Beijing supplied 3591,000 square meters in a single month and increased 70.8% month-on-month, which was an important support for first-tier supply in August, while supply from Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen has all declined month-on-month. Second-tier cities supplied about 3.6 million square meters in August, down 12.6% month-on-month and 34.7% year-on-year. The cumulative supply in the first 8 months was 37.4 million square meters, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 24.9%. Most cities continued to contract. Only low-base cities such as Harbin, Nanning, and Xiamen showed significant volume growth. Third- and fourth-tier cities supplied about 1.63 million square meters in August, down 8.9% month-on-month and 21.0% year-on-year. The cumulative supply in the first 8 months was 14.61 million square meters, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 14.3%. The absolute scale is at an all-time low. The year-on-year decline was the most moderate among all energy levels. Overall, supply continued the “overall contraction and partial release” pattern in August, with only a few low base cities bucking the trend against the backdrop of overall weakening at all energy levels.
Table 2 Supply of newly built commercial housing in 50 key cities across the country in August 2026 (unit: 10,000 square meters)
New home transaction
Continued month-on-month decline, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 10.8% in the previous 8 months
In August 2026, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 50 key cities across the country was about 9.33 million square meters, down 16.9% from the previous month, and the decline was 5.8 pcts narrower than the previous month; the year-on-year decline changed from a basic flat rate in July, down 16.4%, and the market was once again under pressure due to the double drag of the traditional off-season sales season and continued contraction in supply. The cumulative transaction area in January-August was about 92.97 million square meters, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 10.8%, an increase of 0.7 pcts compared to January-July. It should be pointed out that the sales system and new credit policy, which were intensively released at the central level at the end of August, are expected to inject expected momentum into the “gold nine silver ten” market, but it will still take time for the policy to be transmitted from implementation to transaction.
Figure 2 Monthly changes in the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 50 key cities across the country from January 2025 to August 2026
Judging from the performance of cities at various energy levels, first-tier cities traded about 1.54 million square meters in August, down 8.9% month-on-month and 5.9% year-on-year. They are the only sector in the three energy levels to maintain positive year-on-year growth. The cumulative sales volume in the first 8 months was 13.89 million square meters, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 4.2%. Among them, Shanghai traded 470,000 square meters in a single month, up 23.4% month-on-month and 27.6% year-on-year, with a year-on-year increase of 27.6%, showing the brightest performance among first-tier cities. Second-tier cities traded about 5.53 million square meters in August, down 16.9% month-on-month and 18.7% year-on-year. In the first 8 months, cumulative sales were 55.6 million square meters, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 14.4%. Among them, Chengdu and Xi'an fell nearly 40% month-on-month, while Changsha, Hangzhou, and Chengdu all fell more than 30% year on year, becoming the main force dragging down second-tier transactions; only some cities such as Jinan and Harbin bucked the trend. Third- and fourth-tier cities traded about 2.26 million square meters in August, down 21.6% month-on-month and 22.0% year-on-year. The downward pressure in a single month was the greatest among the three energy levels. However, the cumulative turnover in the first 8 months was 23.48 million square meters, a cumulative decrease of only 5.3% year-on-year. The cumulative performance was relatively stable under a low base. Overall, the divergent pattern of “first-tier relative resilience, second-tier acceleration, and monthly pressure on the third and fourth tier” of new housing transactions in August was further highlighted.
Table 3 New commercial residential transactions in 50 key cities across the country in August 2026 (unit: 10,000 square meters)
Second-hand housing transactions
The month-on-month decline increased, and the year-on-year increase remained positive, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 6.9% in the previous 8 months
In August 2026, second-hand housing transactions in 20 key cities across the country continued to decline “four times in a row”. The transaction area was about 14.51 million square meters, down 8.0% from the previous month, and the decline was 2.3 pcts higher than the previous month; up 8.8% year on year, the increase was basically the same as last month. Against the backdrop of a year-on-year decline in new housing transactions, second-hand housing still maintained positive growth with price advantages and transaction flexibility. The cumulative transaction area in January-August was about 125.09 million square meters, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 6.9%. The growth rate increased by 0.2 pcts compared to January-July. Second-hand housing sales volume and growth rate were significantly ahead of new homes, and the dominant position of second-hand housing continued to strengthen.
Figure 3 Changes in monthly second-hand housing transaction area in 20 key national cities from January 2025 to August 2026
Judging from the performance of cities at various energy levels, second-hand housing transactions in first-tier cities in August were about 4.14 million square meters, down 5.6% from the previous month and up 4.1% from the previous year. The total number of transactions in the first 8 months was 3.68 million square meters, a cumulative increase of 5.3% over the previous year. Second- and third-tier cities traded about 10.38 million square meters in August, down 8.9% month-on-month and up 10.7% year-on-year. In the first 8 months, the cumulative sales rate was 7.5% year-on-year, clearly ahead of first-tier cities. The growth rate was clearly ahead of first-tier cities, reflecting that after housing prices were fully adjusted, the release of price-sensitive demand and demand improvement was more flexible, and the carrying capacity of the stock housing market continued to increase.
Looking at the volume of transactions in key cities, in August, Chengdu ranked first with 1.68 million square meters, a slight decrease of 1.8% and a year-on-year increase of 15.6%, leading the country for many months; Shanghai followed with 1.67 million square meters, down 4.5% month-on-month and 10.9% year-on-year; Beijing ranked third with 1.67 million square meters of transactions, down 1.6% from month to month and 2.8% year on year. Looking at the year-on-year growth rate, cities such as Suzhou, Dongguan, Yangzhou, and Huizhou increased by more than 20% year over year, and the combination of low base price advantages drove transaction volume. Overall, the second-hand housing market continues to have a pattern of “stable scale in leading cities and segmented transactions in peripheral cities”.
Table 4 Second-hand housing transaction area in 20 key national cities in August 2026 (10,000 square meters)
The land market
The popularity of local auctions continued to decline in August, and the premium rate fell back to 7.68%
In August 2026, the land market cooled down further on the basis of July contraction, and high-quality land plots in core cities remained highly active. The construction area of land supply in the 50 key cities was 12.3073 million square meters, up 25.70% from the previous year, down 37.20% year on year; the transaction area was 6.0308 million square meters, down 31.30% from the previous year, down 32.40% year on year; the transaction amount was 75.01 billion yuan, down 23.80% month on month, up 28.80% year on year; the transaction floor price was about 12,446 yuan/square meter, up 10.90% month on month, up 90.40% year on year.
Judging from the popularity of the market, the average premium rate fell back to 7.68% this month, down 7.25 percentage points from July, but still 1.51 percentage points higher than the same period last year. Beijing took the lead with a total transaction price of 24.697 billion yuan, followed by Shanghai (24.661 billion yuan), and the two were almost equal. The total land transaction price of the two cities accounted for 65.8% of the 50 key cities; Chengdu (3,529 billion yuan) ranked third. The auction rate rebounded to 3.77%, up 1.82 percentage points from July, but it is still relatively low, and housing enterprises are becoming more cautious about acquiring land.
The transaction performance of cities at various energy levels is clearly divided. Among the first-tier cities, Beijing had the most outstanding performance, ranking first in the country with a total transaction price of 24.697 billion yuan and an average transaction price of 51220 yuan/square meter; Shanghai ranked second with a total transaction price of 24.661 billion yuan (almost the same as Beijing), with an average transaction price of 35,391 yuan/square meter also ranked second, and the floor price of the core plot was still at the top. Among second-tier cities, Chengdu, Dongguan, and Wuhan have maintained a high level of activity, and the value of high-quality land in core cities continues to stand out; among third- and fourth-tier cities, Zhenjiang has the highest construction area of 669,500 square meters, and Nantong and Xuzhou also have significant volumes, but the transaction scale of most third- and fourth-tier cities continues to be sluggish, and the pattern of market differentiation continues.
Figure 4 Monthly residential land supply transactions in 50 cities from August 2025 to August 2026
Judging from the land transaction situation, high-value land is highly concentrated in core cities such as Beijing and Shanghai. The top of the list was Zhenruzhixin plot in Putuo District, Shanghai (plot B03B-01, B04B-01, B06-01, W060802 unit), which was contested by Zhonghai with a reserve price of 15.019 billion yuan; the urban village renovation project around Xijiqing Town, Haidian District, Beijing ranked second with 9.761 billion yuan, contested by Beijing Guangmao Real Estate. The transaction floor price reached 68,444 yuan/square meter, with a premium rate of 14.10%; the Quguang Road Urban Village Renovation Project, Nanmofang Township, Chaoyang District, Beijing ranked second with 8.399 million yuan It ranked third, with a transaction floor price of 81,407 yuan/square meter. The premium rate was 19.13%, and Beijing Yongxin Industrial competed.
Among the top 10 total price plots, Beijing accounts for 4 cases, Shanghai accounts for 4 cases, and Dongguan and Chengdu each account for 1 case. First-tier cities absolutely dominate, and the overall popularity is remarkable.
In terms of the unit price list, the top of the list was plot 0409-10 of the Chengzhong Village Renovation Project on Guangqu Road, Nanmofang Township, Chaoyang District, Beijing. The transaction price was 8,1,407 yuan/square meter. The Sijiqing Town plot in Haidian District of Beijing ranked second with 68,444 yuan/square meter; the C-02E-01 plot in Shanghai's Pudong New Area ranked third with 48,114 yuan/square meter; the Zhenruzhixin plot in Putuo District of Shanghai ranked sixth with a transaction floor price of 37,835 yuan/square meter. Among the top ten land plots in unit prices, Beijing accounts for 5 cases and Shanghai accounts for 5. The value of high-end land plots in first-tier and core cities continues to be recognized by the market.
Overall, the land market cooled down further in August, but high-quality assets in core cities are still attractive. Beijing has an outstanding performance in the total price and unit price lists. Shanghai's core land (Zhenruzhixin, North Bund, etc.) also has the highest floor prices; cities such as Wuhan, Nanning, Nanchang, and Dalian have experienced individual high-premium plots due to a shortage of local land supply, but this has not changed the characteristics of the overall market's decline in popularity and structural differentiation. The long-term logic of “high-quality assets in core cities being sought after” in the land market has not changed.