GF Securities: The brand retail industry is growing steadily, and the performance of the OEM industry is under pressure

The Zhitong Finance App learned that in the short term, GF Securities released a research report saying that in the short term, the second half of 2026 corresponds to a lower base for the same period of the previous year, and combined with the benefits of the Asian Games, it is optimistic that the performance of leading domestic sports footwear and clothing brands will recover. In the medium to long term, the sports footwear industry has a large market space. The advantages of leading companies in the two core competencies of marketing and R&D continue to deepen, and their position in the industry is stable. The bank recommended focusing on leading foundry companies benefiting from the steady growth of old leisure customers, the rapid increase in the penetration rate of new sports customers, and a steady increase in the proportion of integrated fabrics, leading the industry in terms of performance in the first half of the year. Second, in the short term, I am optimistic about the weak recovery in the second half of the year. In the medium to long term, the sports footwear industry has large market space, leading companies in the sneaker clothing OEM industry have strong competitiveness, the quality of downstream customers is excellent, the penetration rate of old customers is increasing, new customers are constantly being developed, and production capacity is steadily expanding. I am optimistic that future medium- to long-term performance is expected to maintain steady growth.

The main views of GF Securities are as follows:

Sports shoes and clothing downstream brand retail industry

26H1 steady growth on the revenue side and profit side. According to iFind and company financial reports, 2026H1, (1) revenue and net profit: the sneaker brand retail industry achieved revenue of 80.66 billion yuan, up 7.5% year on year; net profit to mother of 13.29 billion yuan, up 23.9% year on year; (2) gross margin and expense ratio: gross margin of the sneaker brand retail industry was 54.9% (YOY+1.2pct); sales expense ratio 30.9% (YOY+0.8pct); management expense ratio 5.8% (YoY0.2pct) ;( 3) Operating indicators: sneaker brand retail The number of inventory turnover days in the industry was 112 days, a year-on-year increase of 7 days; the number of accounts receivable turnover days was 37 days, a decrease of 1 day over the previous year.

Upstream foundry industry for sports shoes and clothing

The 26H1 revenue side declined, and the pressure on the profit side was mainly affected by fluctuations in raw material prices, exchange rates, and weak demand from some overseas brands. According to iFind and company financial reports, 2026H1 (1) revenue and profit: the sneaker foundry industry achieved revenue of 62.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5%; net profit to mother was 4.0 billion yuan, a decrease of 44.6% year on year; (2) gross margin and expense ratio: the gross margin of the sneaker foundry industry was 17.4% (YOY-3.9pct); sales expense ratio was 0.8% (YoY+0.5pct); (3) Operating indicators: The sneaker garment foundry had an inventory transfer week of 72 days, YoY The increase was 2 days; the number of accounts receivable turnover days was 66 days, an increase of 6 days over the previous year.

Investment advice

(1) Sportswear brand retail industry: Looking ahead to 2026Q3, the bank expects the retail performance of the sneaker brand retail industry to recover weakly. First, the base for the same period last year was low. Second, despite being affected by extreme weather in July, the weather gradually returned to normal since August, and leading sneakerwear brand companies operate online and offline channels and are highly resilient to risks. Third, this year's Mid-Autumn Festival is expected to improve sales. Finally, the Aichi-Nagoya Asian Games will soon be held at the end of September. Leading domestic sports brand companies are expected to use the Asian Games as a large-scale event window to pass through the competition scene Exposure with athletes Achieve effective brand exposure, increase market attention, and play a positive role in driving sales in the short term.

(2) Upstream sports footwear foundry industry: Looking ahead to 2026Q3, it is expected to pick up from the second quarter. First, external demand is picking up and domestic demand stabilizing. Coupled with the gradual clarification of the US tariff policy, the pace of orders placed by downstream customers is expected to return to normal. Second, due to US equal tariffs and trade frictions during the same period last year, the performance base of leading companies in the industry is low. Third, the price lag caused by rising raw material prices will be reflected in the third quarter. Finally, the disruptive impact of exchange rate factors is expected to weaken to a certain extent.

Risk Alerts

The risk of a macroeconomic downturn, the risk of exchange rate fluctuations, and the risk of rising labor costs.