Is Intuitive Machines (LUNR) Still Below Fair Value After Its New IM 300 Contract?

Intuitive Machines (LUNR) recently announced a contract to build two IM 300 series spacecraft platforms for a new undisclosed customer. The award broadens its IM 300 customer base and highlights demand for modular, mission-configurable satellites.

The new IM 300 contract comes after a sharp swing in Intuitive Machines’ share price. The stock is down 11.33% over the past week, even after a 19.29% gain over the past 30 days, while the 1-year total shareholder return of 69% points to strong longer-term momentum.

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After a swing that leaves Intuitive Machines up strongly over the past year but down sharply from its 90 day level, the contract news raises a simple issue: Is most of the rerating already behind the stock or still ahead as valuation comes into focus?

Most Popular Narrative: 36% Undervalued

At a last close of $14.72, the most followed narrative on Intuitive Machines points to a fair value of $23.00, which implies a sizeable valuation gap according to that framework.

Intuitive Machines (LUNR) has successfully shifted from a high-risk startup to a Lunar Infrastructure Prime, backed by a $943M backlog and a strategic pivot toward high-margin data services via the Lanteris acquisition. While the trajectory toward positive Adjusted EBITDA in 2026 is clear, the current stock price reflects a "perfection premium" that overlooks recent share dilution.

Read the complete narrative. Read the complete narrative.

The core of this narrative focuses on how quickly lunar delivery work can give way to recurring data revenues. It also relies heavily on potential margin expansion and the impact of a much larger share count. If you want to see exactly how those moving parts combine into a higher fair value than today’s share price, the full narrative sets out the full investment story behind that $23.00 estimate.

Result: Fair Value of $23.00 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, this Intuitive Machines narrative could be challenged if projected revenue and margin improvements slip, or if further share issuance dilutes any implied per share upside.

Find out about the key risks to this Intuitive Machines narrative.

Another View On Intuitive Machines’ Valuation

The popular narrative values Intuitive Machines at $23.00 using a revenue multiple. Our DCF model points in a very different direction. At a last close of $14.72, it estimates future cash flows at just $1.01 per share, which screens as heavily overvalued on that framework. Which lens do you trust more when cash generation is still some way off?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Next Steps

If this mix of optimism and concern around Intuitive Machines feels familiar, act while the data is fresh and shape your own view using the 1 key reward and 4 important warning signs.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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