Huachuang Securities: Joining Express in 26Q2 continues to achieve high performance growth and continues to push the “excellent performance+undervalued” express delivery sector
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Huachuang Securities released a research report stating that it continues to push the “excellent performance+undervalued” express delivery sector. The bank believes that the e-commerce express delivery industry is entering a new stage of high-quality development, that is, according to the data, “shifting the volume growth rate, giving priority to improving quality and price improvement, and increasing leading share”; the core logic behind it: one is that “anti-internal volume” is sustainable, and the other is that the industry pattern is or continuous optimization. Domestic e-commerce express delivery continues to promote Zhongtong (02057), Yuantong (600233.SH), and Shentong (002468.SZ), and it is recommended to focus on the continuation of Yunda (002120.SZ) performance improvements. At the same time, we continue to recommend Jitu Express (01519). The bank continues to be optimistic about SF Express (002352.SZ) investment opportunities.
The main views of Huachuang Securities are as follows:
Business volume: 26H1 unit volume growth rate is steady
1) 2026H1: Industry component volume growth rate is 5%, Shentong's growth rate is leading, and Zhongtong's share is leading. 2026H1 business volume and share: Zhongtong (20.1%) > Yuantong (16.3 billion units, 16.2%) > Shentong (14.3 billion units, 14.2%) > Yunda (12.3 billion units, 12.2%) > Jitu (11.6 billion units, 11.6%) > SF Express (7.8 billion units, 7.8%). Looking at the business volume growth rate: Shentong (15.8%) > Zhongtong (9.63%) > Jitu China (9.59%) > Yuantong (9.5%) > Industry (5.0%) > SF Express (-0.1%) > Yunda (-3.7%). Note: Since November 2025, Shentong Express has included Danniao in the scope of the consolidated statement; SF Express is the express shipping business volume. 2) 2026Q2 business volume growth rate: Shentong (17.1%) > Jitu China (10.6%) > Yuantong (6.8%) > Industry (4.2%) > Yunda (-1.5%) > SF Express (-4.9%).
Price: 2026H1 rebound continues, and prices are gradually picking up
1) Industry: 2026H1 express delivery revenue was 771.4 billion yuan, up 7.3% year on year; average ticket revenue was 7.7 yuan, +2.3% year over year. 2) Performance of each company: Shentong (2.24 yuan, +12.2%) > Yuantong (2.17 yuan, -1.0%) > Yunda (2.13 yuan, +9.5%); Zhongtong's single ticket revenue without payment was 1.36 yuan, an increase of 12.0% year on year; SF Express's single ticket revenue was 14.4 yuan, +3.3% year over year. 2026Q2: Zhongtong 1.37 yuan, +15.5% (+0.18 yuan); Yuantong 2.11 yuan, YoY -0.6% (-0.01 yuan), Shentong 2.17 yuan, YoY +10.1% (+0.2 yuan), SF Express 14.11 yuan, +5.8% (+0.77 yuan), Yunda 2.09 yuan, YoY +9.4% (+0.18 yuan).
Performance Overview: Franchise Express continues to deliver results under anti-domestic sales, and focus on the accelerated performance of SF Express's international business
1) 2026H1 net profit: SF Express (5.50 billion, -4.1%) > Zhongtong (5.17 billion, +31.5%) > Yuantong (3.18 billion, +73.4%) > Shentong (1.04 billion, +128.3%) > Yunda (1.0 billion, +88.8%); after deducting non-net profit: Zhongtong (5.46 billion, +26.7%) > SF Express (4.98 billion, +9.3%) > Yuantong (3.12 billion, +76.9%) > Shentong (1.04 billion, +76.9%) +138.4%) >Yunda ( 930 million, +105.7%).
Net profit for 26Q2: Zhongtong ($3.05 billion, +57.4%) > SF Express ($2.98 billion, -15.1%) > Yuantong ($1.8 billion, +84.5%) > Shentong (580 million, +165.3%) > Yunda (510 million, +146.3%); after deducting non-net profit, Zhongtong ($3.86 billion, +50.3%) > SF Express (2.66 billion, +3.1%) > Yuantong (1.78 billion, +86.2%) > Shentong (58%, +180 million)) > Yunda (480 million, +229.7%).
2) Single ticket analysis: Zhongtong maintains the lead in single ticket net profit. a) Non-net profit deducted from a single ticket: 2026H1 Zhongtong 0.27 yuan > Yuantong 0.19 yuan > Yunda 0.08 yuan > Shentong 0.07 yuan; 26Q2 Zhongtong 0.29 yuan > Yuantong 0.21 yuan > Shentong 0.075 yuan > Yunda 0.073 yuan. From a year-on-year perspective: 2026H1 single ticket deducts non-net profit: Zhongtong +15.6% (or +0.04 yuan), Yunda +95.9% (or +0.04 yuan), Yuantong +62% (or +0.07 yuan), and Shentong +106% (or +0.04 yuan) year-on-year. Note: Zhongtong Express received an income tax refund of 344 million yuan in Q2. After deducting the income tax impact, the net profit after adjusting the 26Q2 single ticket was 0.26 yuan.
3) Asset analysis: Shentong increased slightly, Yuantong, Zhongtong and Yunda declined year-on-year, and SF Express increased year-on-year. The capital expenses of 2026H1 SF Express, Yuantong, Zhongtong, Yunda, and Shentong were $61, 35, 28, 1 billion and 1.4 billion respectively, with year-on-year differences of +46.2%, -21.4%, -10.2%, -20.5%, and +4.2% (SF capital expenditure did not include equity investment).
Polar Rabbit: 2026H1's revenue was US$7.67 billion, +39.5% YoY; the company's adjusted net profit was US$350 million, +124.3% YoY, and profitability continued to increase. 26H1 single ticket revenue was 0.44 US dollars, +0.05 US dollars year on year; single ticket cost was 0.38 US dollars, +0.03 US dollars year over year. The adjusted EBIT for a single ticket was $0.025, +77.2% year over year.
Risk warning: E-commerce growth has slowed sharply, price wars have exceeded expectations, and international business development has fallen short of expectations.