Guojin Securities: Automobile exports drive profit growth, high-end product strength accelerates domestic sales differentiation

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guojin Securities released a research report saying that in the first half of 2026, overall passenger car export sales increased 73% year-on-year, accounting for 34% of the industry's total sales; high-end and product strength are strong supports for domestic sales to obtain revenue. The core changes in the automobile industry are: overseas travel continues to grow rapidly, the influence of AI on automobiles continues to deepen & intelligent driving ushered in an inflection point; domestic demand, especially the middle and high-end domestic demand, is expected to rise from the bottom; they are optimistic about car companies with high growth in export sales and high performance flexibility for high-end models.

Guojin Securities's main views are as follows:

Revenue side: High exports and a slight year-on-year increase in Q2 revenue driven by strong new car cycles for some car companies

1) The sample companies' overall revenue in 2026Q2 increased 1.7% year on year and 22.4% month on month. Divided in quantitative profit, overall sales increased 1.4% year on year. It is expected that high export growth hedged the decline in domestic sales; overall ASP remained flat year on year. Performance among car companies is divided. Among them, revenue growth is mainly driven by the domestic new car cycle, high export growth, and upward structural drive; the decline in revenue is mainly affected by the pressure on the domestic demand market, the pace of new cars, and product structure. 2) 2026H1: The overall revenue of the sample companies was +0.6% year over year, with overall sales volume of -3.2% year over year, and ASP +50,000 yuan year over year. On the one hand, it is expected that the high increase in industry exports will hedge the impact of the decline in domestic demand, and on the other hand, the overall price strategy is more moderate than in the same period last year.

Gross profit side: The increase in exports and the share of high-end vehicles effectively hedge the impact of rising raw material costs. The overall gross margin of the Q2/H1 sample companies increased year-on-year

1) The overall gross margin of the 2026Q2 sample companies was 15.9%, +0.9pct/-0.4pct YoY, respectively. The bank expects the year-on-year increase mainly due to the increase in the share of high-end cars and exports to effectively hedge the impact of rising raw material costs. The month-on-month decline is mainly due to a further rise in the Q2 price of memory chips, the recovery of domestic sales in Q2 by some car companies, and a slight decline in the share of more profitable export sales. 2) The overall gross margin of the 2026H1 sample companies was 16.1%, +1.0pct year over year. Apart from the increase in the share of high-end cars and exports, the overall price strategy was more moderate compared to the same period last year.

Net profit: The restoration of foreign exchange affected the overall net profit decline slightly year-on-year, with significant differentiation among car companies

1) Due to exchange rate fluctuations, the bank recovered or selected the core net profit disclosed by the car company to calculate the exchange effect. After restoration, the total net profit to mother in 26Q2 was -2% YoY and +16% month-on-month, corresponding to an average bicycle net profit of 30,000 yuan, which was basically the same as the same as the same as the same as the same. Performance among car companies was divided. The notable year-on-year increase in profits after the Q2 restoration was that of BYD, SAIC, Geely, and Chery. At the same time, Zero Run turned a sharp loss into a profit. Apart from Chery, the other car companies were driven by domestic and foreign sales; the losses of JAC and BAIC narrowed year-on-year due to increased sales volume brought about by the listing of the Zunjie S800 and Xinjie S9T. 2) The total net profit of the 2026H1 sample companies after restoration increased 3% year-on-year, which is expected to be driven by the growth of high-end vehicles and exports.

Summarize

1) Exports have become the core driving the profit growth of car companies. In the first half of 2026, overall passenger car export sales increased 73% year on year, accounting for 34% of total industry sales, and generally had better profitability than domestic sales. The high increase in exports effectively hedged the negative impact of the overall decline in domestic sales and rising raw material costs on profits in the first half of the year. 2) High-end technology and product strength are strong supports for domestic sales to gain revenue. Retail sales in the 400,000+ market in the first half of the year were +29.2% (-18.3% in overall retail sales). Sales growth of models such as the Krypton 9X, Zunjie S800, and Tank 700 contributed to increased profits for car companies such as Geely, JAC, and Great Wall; BYD improved domestic sales profits with the power of flash charging technology, and Zero Run bucked the trend and turned losses into profits with product creation and cost control capabilities.

Risk warning: risk of raw material price fluctuations, foreign tariffs and other policy risks, risk of worsening domestic and foreign competition patterns, risk of exchange rate fluctuations, etc.