US Stock Forecast | Futures of the three major stock indexes had mixed ups and downs, Dell Technology's performance rose, and Broadcom announced financial reports after the market

Pre-market market trends

1. Before the US stock market on September 2 (Wednesday), futures for the three major US stock indexes had mixed ups and downs. As of press release, Dow futures were up 0.19%, S&P 500 futures were up 0.02%, and NASDAQ futures were down 0.24%.

2. As of press release, the German DAX index fell 0.44%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell 0.31%, the French CAC40 index fell 0.18%, and the European Stoxx 50 index fell 0.12%.

3. As of press release, WTI crude oil fell 1.21% to $89.13 per barrel. Brent crude fell 1.00% to $93.70 per barrel.

Market news

The “September spell” is here, and there is almost no panic in US stocks! The abnormal calm is, on the other hand, worth being wary of. US stocks have entered one of the most volatile months in history, yet the market is currently showing no typical signs of weakening. The S&P 500 is still near an all-time high and is clearly above the 200-day moving average, making the probability of a sharp decline in September this year lower than the historical average. Ali Wald, head of technical analysis at Oppenheimer, said that although the S&P 500 has not continued to rise rapidly recently, there has been no “major break” in the market. From a technical perspective, the risk of US stocks forming an important top position is still below the historical average. Simply judging this year's trend by “September is the worst month of the year” is insufficient. Compared to seasonal laws, what we need to pay more attention to now is volatility, bond yields, and the Federal Reserve's policy. As the second quarter earnings season for S&P 500 constituent stocks nears the end, the dominant factor in the September market will also shift back from corporate performance to the macro environment. Jack Janasewicz, multi-asset portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers, believes that inflation, Federal Reserve policy, and bond yields will be the main variables affecting the market in the future.

The war will not be over, oil prices will not go down, and the Federal Reserve will fall into “difficult to do it or not” in September. Nick Timiraos, chief economic correspondent for the “Federal Reserve Microphone” and “Wall Street Journal”, recently wrote that the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting from September 15 to 16 is facing an increasingly complex policy environment. A war that lasts far beyond initial expectations and continues to push up energy prices is hard to see as a short-term variable that can be ignored. The energy crisis, which was originally viewed as a short-term shock, has been slow to recede, and rising energy prices are re-testing the central bank's previous judgment on the “temporary” impact of inflation. Investors are also finding it increasingly difficult to believe how long this judgment can last. Timiraos pointed out that the market is currently betting that even if the Federal Reserve does not raise interest rates in September, interest rates may still be raised until December. Regardless of what action is finally taken in September, expectations of interest rate hikes themselves have been clearly boosted. If the Federal Reserve raises interest rates in September, the next thing the market will focus on is whether it will continue to raise interest rates, which may further boost long-term US bond yields. And if the Federal Reserve chooses to stay on hold, a new question will also arise: if Walsh believes that inflation has not really improved, and that current borrowing conditions are not sufficiently suppressing the economy, then how should keeping interest rates unchanged be explained?

AI infrastructure “burns money” to 5.5 trillion US dollars! Xiaomo: The bond market has the ability to absorb the wave of bond issuance, and tech giants can still increase leverage. As tech giants set off a wave of debt issuance to build AI data centers, the market began to worry about whether the US investment-grade bond market could absorb the increasing supply of debt. However, Stephanie Aliaga, a global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, believes that the current leverage level of hyperscale cloud computing companies is still low, and strong demand for AI computing power also supports future cash flow, so the bond market is fully capable of absorbing new issuances. J.P. Morgan estimates that the six largest hyperscale cloud vendors could even add about $1.5 trillion more in debt from the current level without putting significant pressure on their financial situation. Currently, the bonds of the six largest cloud computing companies already account for about 5% of the US investment-grade bond index, which is double that of two years ago. As AI infrastructure investments continue to expand, the influence of these tech giants in the global bond market is rapidly rising.

The hawkish Federal Reserve and energy inflation “hunted” gold, and the increase in gold prices during the year was almost zero! Deficit anxiety continues to push Wall Street towards $5,000. Recently, the spot price of gold rose to a three-month high of more than $4,696.18 per ounce, driven by the US Treasury's expansion of long-term treasury bond repurchases, the disorderly expansion of the US dollar index, and the wave of “currency depreciation transactions.” However, since the US Treasury Chairman Walsh made hawkish remarks at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank last Friday, the price of gold continued to weaken, and the war between the US and Iran then escalated again. However, fiscal deficits, the dilution of the dollar's purchasing power, and central bank purchases mean that the logic of long-term currency depreciation has not broken down. According to the latest public forecast, Citi will raise the target price of gold from $4,500 to $4,800 for the next six to three months and maintain the target of $5,000 for the next six to twelve months; Goldman Sachs expects to rise to $4,900 at the end of 2026, and predicts that the central bank will buy 50 tons of gold per month in 2026, far higher than the monthly average of 17 tons before 2022; Deutsche Bank is relatively cautious and expects the average price for the third and fourth quarters to be 4,300 US dollars and 4,800 US dollars respectively. At the same time, it warns that if the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates, the price of gold may drop by $3,800 ; Morgan Stanley, on the other hand, believes that its target of $4,450 for the fourth quarter has been achieved ahead of schedule, and sees a path of breaking through $5,000 in 2027.

Individual stock news

Dell Technology (DELL.US) “AI money printer” accelerated: Q2 net profit surged more than tripled, AI server backlog orders surged to US$95 billion, and annual revenue guidance soared to US$1920 billion. Financial reports show that in the second quarter of the 2027 fiscal year ending July 31, the company's revenue increased 58% year over year to 46.97 billion US dollars, higher than analysts' average forecast of 44.92 billion US dollars; net profit was 4.13 billion US dollars, a sharp increase of more than 3 times that of 1.16 billion US dollars in the same period last year; adjusted earnings per share were 7.04 US dollars, far higher than the average analysts' expectations of 4.92 US dollars. By the end of the second fiscal quarter, the backlog of AI server orders reached US$95 billion, which is seen as an important leading indicator of future revenue. The company also gave strong guidance for the third fiscal quarter — with adjusted earnings per share of $6.50 and revenue of $49 billion. Analysts had previously estimated adjusted earnings per share for the fiscal third quarter of $4.49, with revenue of $41.42 billion. The company also raised its full-year performance forecast for fiscal year 2027 sharply. Currently, it expects full-year adjusted earnings per share of US$25.50 and revenue of US$1920 billion. The previous guidance for the full year was adjusted earnings per share of US$17.90, with revenue between US$165 billion and US$169 billion. As of press release, Dell Technologies's US stock rose nearly 8% before the market on Wednesday.

Revenue doubled, but stock prices fell! Credo (CRDO.US), which has the label of “AI Optical-Copper Co-Explosion”, hit a profit margin deceleration belt. Financial reports show that in the first fiscal quarter of the 2027 fiscal year ending August 1, 2026, the company's revenue increased 114.7% year over year to US$479 million, higher than analysts' average forecast of US$472 million; adjusted earnings per share increased 130.8% yoy to US$1.20, also higher than analysts' average expectation of US$1.17. Looking ahead, Credo expects revenue for the second fiscal quarter to be $525 million to $535 million, and the median forecast range of $530 million is higher than analysts' average forecast of $516.5 million. However, Credo's gross GAAP margin for the first fiscal quarter fell 290 basis points year over year and 370 basis points month over month to 64.5%, while the median guidance value for the second fiscal quarter fell to 63.9%. Even though the company announced strong core performance indicators and revenue forecasts, relatively weak gross margin data caused the company's stock price to weaken after the market to a certain extent. As of press release, Credo's US stocks fell more than 9% before the market on Wednesday.

AI hacking is the norm! Palo Alto Networks (PANW.US) was the biggest winner, and the 2027 guidance completely exceeded expectations. Cybersecurity company Palo Alto Networks released a full-year profit forecast that surpassed Wall Street expectations, mainly due to strong protection requirements from major companies to withstand increasingly advanced artificial intelligence systems. According to financial reports, the company's revenue for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026 reached 3.41 billion US dollars, up 34.3% year over year, exceeding expectations of 60 million US dollars; adjusted earnings per share were 1.02 US dollars, exceeding expectations of 0.04 US dollars. The company said in a statement on Tuesday that it expects adjusted earnings per share for the 2027 fiscal year of $4.16 to $4.19. This figure is higher than Wall Street's average estimate of $4.11; the next-generation security business's annual recurring revenue (ARR) is expected to be $11.075 billion to $11.175 billion, up 22% to 23% year over year, and higher than market expectations. As of press release, Palo Alto Networks US stocks fell more than 2% before the market on Wednesday.

The revenue growth rate hit a multi-year high, and the overall guidance for the whole year was raised! MongoDB (MDB.US) performance later fell sharply: Atlas's growth rate fell short of “hidden expectations” and led to a profit settlement. Document database company MongoDB announced results for the second fiscal quarter of the 2027 fiscal year ending July 31. According to financial reports, MongoDB's second-fiscal quarter revenue increased 30% year-on-year to US$771.8 million, higher than analysts' expectations of US$735 million, the highest quarterly revenue growth rate since FY2024. Earnings per diluted share were $1.90, or $87 million or $1.00 per share for the same period last year, far exceeding market expectations of $1.62. The company raised its annual revenue guidance from US$2.92 billion to US$2.96 billion to US$2.99 billion to US$3.03 billion. The median range of US$3.01 billion was higher than the analysts' consensus of US$2.96 billion. The full-year adjusted earnings per share guide was raised from $5.95 to $6.14 to $6.39 to $6.58. The median value of $6.485 was higher than the market consensus of $6.13. However, since the growth rate of the Atlas cloud database business failed to meet the higher expectations of some investors, and the stock had already risen sharply in the previous month, there is very little room for fault tolerance in the market. As of press release, MongoDB's US stocks fell nearly 13% before the market on Wednesday.

Net ARR increased by over 40%, and total bookings reached a record high! GitLab (GTLB.US)'s strong Q2 performance hit expectations. According to financial reports, DevSecOps platform giant GitLab's revenue for the second quarter of fiscal year 2027 reached US$286.3 million, up 21.3% year-on-year, exceeding expectations of US$12.94 million; adjusted earnings per share were $0.24, exceeding expectations of US$0.06. Total bookings from the company's software development, security, and operations platform vendors reached a record high, and noted a net annual recurring revenue (ARR) increase of more than 40%. Looking ahead, GitLab expects third-quarter revenue of US$281 million to US$283 million, compared with market expectations of US$281 million; earnings per share are expected to be between US$0.19 and US$0.20, while the general market expectation is $0.18. As of press release, GitLab's US stock rose nearly 21% before the market on Wednesday.

Key economic data and event forecasts

Changes in ADP employment numbers in the US in August at 20:15 Beijing time (10,000)

At 21:05 Beijing time, Federal Reserve Governor Barr delivered a speech on “Economic Outlook and Financial Inclusion”

Monthly rate of US factory orders in July at 22:00 Beijing time (%)

Performance Forecast

Thursday morning: Broadcom (AVGO.US), HPE (HPE.US), Snowflake (SNOW.US), US Netstore (NTAP.US)

Thursday pre-market: Ciena (CIEN.US), Zhiwen Group (MOMO.US)