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    Why Methanex (TSX:MX) Is Up 5.7% After Idling New Zealand Methanol Capacity Over Gas Supply

    Simply Wall St·09/02/2026 13:19:34
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    • Methanex Corporation has agreed to sell substantially all of its New Zealand natural gas contractual entitlements and, citing declining domestic supply and no clear path to new gas, idled its New Zealand methanol production facilities indefinitely in early 2027.
    • This move reduces Methanex’s production footprint in a historically important region and highlights how gas availability constraints can reshape its global operating model.
    • We’ll now examine how idling New Zealand capacity due to limited gas supply may affect Methanex’s previously gas-dependent investment narrative.

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    Methanex Investment Narrative Recap

    Methanex’s investment story has traditionally rested on being a leading global methanol producer with reliable gas access and disciplined capital allocation. The decision to idle New Zealand from early 2027 highlights that securing affordable feedstock remains the key near term catalyst and the biggest operational risk. While New Zealand has been important historically, the impact on the immediate outlook appears contained, with the broader question now shifting to how well Methanex can reinforce its remaining gas portfolio.

    The recent decision to indefinitely idle the Titan plant in Trinidad and Tobago after it failed to secure a new gas contract ties directly into this New Zealand announcement. Together, they underline how gas availability and contract terms can drive capacity decisions and influence how Methanex converts its production footprint and any OCI related benefits into earnings resilience.

    Yet behind the production story, investors should also be aware that reliance on contracted gas in regions like Chile and Egypt...

    Read the full narrative on Methanex (it's free!)

    Methanex's narrative projects $4.1 billion revenue and $805.2 million earnings by 2029.

    Uncover how Methanex's forecasts yield a CA$91.07 fair value, a 9% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    TSX:MX 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    TSX:MX 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Three Simply Wall St Community fair value estimates for Methanex span roughly CA$91 to CA$169, underlining how far apart individual assessments can be. You see this divergence against a backdrop where gas related production curtailment risk is increasingly central to how Methanex’s future performance could unfold, so it can be useful to compare several of these viewpoints side by side.

    Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Methanex - why the stock might be worth just CA$91.02!

    Decide For Yourself

    Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.