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    Will Avista’s (AVA) Rate Cuts and Transmission Plan Shift Its Regulation and Earnings Narrative?

    Simply Wall St·09/02/2026 16:29:30
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    • In late August 2026, Avista and other NorthernGrid utilities asked federal regulators to accept their own long-term transmission cost allocation plan while Washington filings proposed around an 11.5% reduction in natural gas rates and largely flat electric rates for customers.
    • Together, these actions highlight how Avista is trying to balance customer bill relief with regulatory compliance on regional transmission planning and cost allocation.
    • Next, we’ll examine how the proposed Washington gas rate reduction shapes Avista’s investment narrative around regulation and earnings quality.

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    Avista Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Avista, you need to be comfortable with a slow growing, regulated utility that leans on constructive commissions to support its capital plans and dividend. The proposed 11.5% Washington gas rate cut and defense of NorthernGrid’s cost allocation approach do not appear to materially change the near term earnings catalyst, but they sit squarely within Avista’s biggest current risk: regulatory outcomes around cost recovery and allowed returns.

    The Washington rate filing is the most relevant near term development, because it ties customer bill relief directly to regulatory trust in Avista’s cost tracking and recovery. That sits alongside ongoing FERC engagement on long term transmission cost allocation, which could influence how effectively Avista turns its multi year grid investment plans into earnings while managing exposure to rising capex and wildfire mitigation needs.

    Yet even with supportive filings today, investors should be aware that if future regulators tighten cost recovery around...

    Read the full narrative on Avista (it's free!)

    Avista's narrative projects $2.2 billion revenue and $253.4 million earnings by 2029. This requires 3.3% yearly revenue growth and about a $60 million earnings increase from $193.0 million today.

    Uncover how Avista's forecasts yield a $42.80 fair value, a 14% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    AVA 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    AVA 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Two Simply Wall St Community valuations for Avista span a range from about US$35.21 to US$42.80 per share, showing very different expectations. When you set those views against Avista’s reliance on constructive rate cases to fund its multi billion dollar capex plans, it becomes clear why many readers may want to compare several independent opinions before forming a view on the stock.

    Explore 2 other fair value estimates on Avista - why the stock might be worth as much as 14% more than the current price!

    Form Your Own Verdict

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.