Xiaomi (SEHK:1810) Launches Redmi Note 17 Series, Does The Stock Look Cheap?
Xiaomi (SEHK:1810) has put fresh attention on its smartphone business after launching the Redmi Note 17 Series, a four model lineup that introduces a Pro Max variant, larger batteries, and extended durability commitments.
The Redmi Note 17 launch comes after a tougher share price stretch for Xiaomi, with the stock down 30.34% year to date on a share price basis and the 1 year total shareholder return declining 48.70%. However, the 3 year total shareholder return is up 138.61% and signals longer term momentum from a lower base.
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After that sharp share price pullback and a near 30% gap to the average analyst target, the Xiaomi question is simple: Does fair value lean closer to current levels or to the higher end of today’s estimate range?
Most Popular Narrative: 31.8% Undervalued
According to the most followed Xiaomi narrative, the fair value sits at HK$41.16, which is well above the last close at HK$28.06. That gap puts the focus squarely on how the business mix and long term plans are being valued.
Xiaomi should be viewed as a hybrid multiple business model:
• Hardware (smartphones, IoT): lower-margin, high scale
• Services (internet): high-margin recurring
• EV + AI: high-growth optionality
This creates a sum-of-the-parts valuation profile, with EV and AI acting as long-term re-rating drivers.
The fair value in this narrative leans heavily on how fast earnings might compound, how much of revenue could shift to higher margin internet services, and what kind of profitability Xiaomi could reach from EVs and AI related projects. Curious which specific long term growth path and margin profile sit behind that HK$41.16 figure.
Result: Fair Value of HK$41.16 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, Xiaomi’s story can change quickly if EV execution stumbles or if intense smartphone competition keeps margins under pressure and drags on cash generation.
Find out about the key risks to this Xiaomi narrative.
Next Steps
If this Xiaomi narrative feels finely balanced, now may be a moment to move quickly and evaluate the trade off between risks and rewards for yourself. Put both sides in context by checking the 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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