Guoxin Securities: Insurance debt-side transformation and deepening asset structure allocation rebalance
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guoxin Securities released a research report saying that the debt side of the insurance industry continues to deepen the all-round transformation of products, channels and costs, dividend insurance transformation and channel quality improvements are progressing steadily, and underwriting profit resilience continues to increase. On the asset side, long-term asset allocation of insurance capital and demand for high-dividend bottom positions continue, asset structure rebalancing is progressing steadily, and profit stability is gradually improving.
Guoxin Securities's main views are as follows:
Performance: High profit growth, investment driven
The profits of listed insurers increased significantly in the first half of 2026. The net profit of China Life Insurance, Xinhua Insurance, China Insurance, and China Taibao was +228.6%/+54.0%/+36.1%/+38.5%/+10.4%, respectively. The differentiation in performance was mainly due to elastic differences on the investment side. Underwritten profit continues to play the role of profit ballast stone. Corresponding to the underwritten profit contribution rates of the five insurers were 26%/41%/44%/53%/67%, respectively, the investment side became the core incremental source of performance in the current period.
Life insurance: NBV has increased steadily, and dividend insurance has achieved value rebalance
The value of the new life insurance business remained high. China Life Insurance, Xinhua Insurance, China Insurance, China Ping An, and China Taibao increased by 33.7%/11.9%/2.5%/11.2%/12.7%, respectively. Dividend insurance has become the main force. Ping An's new business dividend insurance accounts for more than 90%, and Taibao has increased to 55.5%, effectively meeting savings demand, but the value ratio is low. Channel side document No. 65 promotes the transformation of banking insurance to value, and the premium growth rate is significantly divided. Leading insurers have generally increased the growth rate of CSM balances compared to the beginning of the year by lengthening payment periods, deepening the high customer base, and actively balancing the scale and value of health care ecosystems, and profit margins will continue to expand in the future.
Financial insurance: COR continues to improve, and underwriting resilience is highlighted
In the first half of 2026, the total premiums of the three leading financial insurance companies were +2.1%. New energy models contributed to the core increase in car insurance. The premium growth rate of the three new energy vehicle insurance companies all exceeded 20%, and Taibao accounted for 23.9%; in non-auto insurance, health insurance, liability insurance and other types of insurance continued to expand. Underwriting profits continued to improve. The COR for Human Insurance, Ping An Financial Insurance, and Taibao Financial Insurance was 94.5%/95.1%/95.0% respectively, down 0.8 pt/0.1 pt/1.3 pt from the previous year. Expense ratios benefited from the integration of reporting and banking to achieve a general decline. Extreme natural disasters boosted compensation pressure in the first half of the year. Leading insurers fluctuated smoothly through disaster reserve accruals, and the results of comprehensive management of non-car insurance showed results.
Investment: three-dimensional rebalance, hedge against fluctuations by account strategy
The recovery in the industry's total return on investment income equity market in the first half of the year generally improved. The net return on investment was under overall pressure due to falling interest rates, and the performance of insurers on the investment side was divided. Leading insurers simultaneously promoted rebalancing in the three dimensions of stock structure, major assets, and fund allocation: equity showed the characteristics of adding OCI high dividends and pressure reducing TPL trading growth stocks. Their China Life Insurance OCI stock balance was +69%, Ping An +17%, and actively depreciated TPL stock exposure by 21%; the trend of “non-standard turnover” of major assets was clear, and the five companies' broad non-standard shares all declined by 0.7-1.7 pct; fund allocations were differentiated, and the balance of Xinhua and People's Insurance funds increased by more than 30%. Differential allocation of sub-accounts is implemented based on IFRS17. Traditional insurance accounts use OCI assets to stabilize profits, and dividend insurance accounts rely on CSM to obtain income elasticity.
Risk warning: Premium income falls short of expectations; capital market fluctuations continue; long-term interest rates decline, etc.