CICC: Policies guide the healthy development of China's automobile exports and recommend leading car companies and global parts companies

The Zhitong Finance App learned that CICC released a research report saying that overall unit prices and profits in overseas markets are superior to domestic ones, and going overseas has become an important support for car companies' sales and performance this year. The Ministry of Commerce, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the General Administration of Market Regulation issued the “Guidelines on Overseas Competition Conduct and Compliance Construction in the Automobile Industry”. Guide the healthy development of China's automobile exports, and be optimistic about car companies with a systematic overseas and strategic layout in the long term. The bank recommends leading car companies with deep overseas layout, leading scale or rapid growth, as well as global parts companies benefiting from overseas new energy transformation and Chinese car companies going overseas.

CICC's main views are as follows:

Passenger car exports continue to be booming, and overseas growth forms an important support for car companies' performance

According to data from the China Automobile Association, passenger car exports in January-July totaled about 5.35 million units, +74% year on year; exports of new energy passenger vehicles were 2.84 million units, +131% year over year, with a penetration rate of 53%. By region, the European Union, Russia, Brazil, and Southeast Asia contributed major increases. At the car company level, the bank expects Chery and BYD's export volume to reach more than 200/1.8 million vehicles in 2026, achieving high double-digit growth; Geely's annual export volume target will increase from 640,000 vehicles to 920,000 units, more than double the previous year; and Zero Run's annual export volume will sprint to 200,000 vehicles, achieving a year-on-year increase of more than 3 times over the previous year. The bank believes that overall unit prices and profits in overseas markets are superior to domestic ones, and that going overseas has become an important support for the sales volume and performance of car companies this year.

The “Guidelines” aim to promote the healthy and orderly international development of China's automobile industry, and to put forward systematic compliance requirements for overseas pricing, promotion, distribution systems and localized operations for car companies

The “Guidelines” clearly state that enterprises can establish a pricing strategy based on cost and guided by supply and demand in the international market, and should not disrupt the competitive order of the market in order to gain an unfair competitive advantage; when formulating recommended retail prices abroad, clear price gradients should be set to avoid frequent and large price fluctuations affecting consumer interests and brand image, and reasonably determine price differences between different countries and regions. The “Guidelines” are clearly general guidance documents for enterprises to refer to in actual operations, and no clear penalties have been added.

Guide the healthy development of China's automobile exports and be optimistic about car companies with a systematic overseas and strategic layout in the long term

The bank believes that as the overseas sales volume and market share of Chinese automobile brands continue to rise, investors' concerns about price competition in overseas markets have intensified; the joint publication of the three departments shows that the supervisory authorities are paying more attention to overseas competition and operational compliance of Chinese car companies, which is expected to guide car companies to pay more attention to overseas pricing discipline, channel interests and long-term brand value, which is conducive to promoting the transformation of overseas car companies' overseas competition from price advantages to more comprehensive product, brand and localization capability advantages. It is beneficial for car companies with deep overseas strategic layout in the long term.

risk

Automobile trade policy adjustments in overseas markets; overseas new energy transformation falls short of expectations.