Copper prices have repeatedly reached new highs in the past year, mainly driven by tariff-related trade flows. Today, investors are betting that the near stagnation in copper production growth will push prices even higher. A series of disappointing production figures since this year are shaking expectations of at least a slight increase in global copper supply. According to data from the International Copper Research Organization, global copper production fell 1.1% in the first half of the year, while the Chilean National Copper Company and Freeport-McMoran both recorded double-digit declines in production. Morgan Stanley originally anticipated an increase in copper supply at the beginning of the year. Currently, production is expected to remain flat or decline slightly, which means that global copper production may experience its first annual decline since 2017.

Copper prices have repeatedly reached new highs in the past year, mainly driven by tariff-related trade flows. Today, investors are betting that the near stagnation in copper production growth will push prices even higher. A series of disappointing production figures since this year are shaking expectations of at least a slight increase in global copper supply. According to data from the International Copper Research Organization, global copper production fell 1.1% in the first half of the year, while the Chilean National Copper Company and Freeport-McMoran both recorded double-digit declines in production. Morgan Stanley originally anticipated an increase in copper supply at the beginning of the year. Currently, production is expected to remain flat or decline slightly, which means that global copper production may experience its first annual decline since 2017.