Everbright Securities: Good boom cycle, positive upward trend, strong lithium batteries, yet to be priced
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Everbright Securities released a research report saying that the reality of strong lithium batteries and weak expectations continue to be interpreted, and there is a trend of strengthening during the peak season, but weak expectations cannot be falsified. The operation of battery leading and negative electrode companies is expected to remain stable. As the situation in the sector gradually became clear in '27, some of the previous excessive pessimistic expectations are expected to be repaired. The market is paying more attention to leading targets, and we need to continue to pay attention to valuation switching opportunities; while segments with strong cyclical attributes or high prices are more game-oriented, we need to wait for the market to set strong and realistic prices.
The main views of Everbright Securities are as follows:
Revenue has been growing at an accelerated pace for many consecutive quarters, and net profit has increased dramatically
The operating revenue of sample companies in the lithium battery industry was 482.9 billion yuan in 26Q2, up 64% year on year and 22% month on month. Since 25Q1, the year-on-year growth rate has been positive, and the growth rate has continued to rise, leading the second order. Compared with the year-on-year growth rate in Q1, the factors that further increased the year-on-year growth rate include upstream resources, lithium iron phosphate, electrolyte 6F, copper and aluminum foil, batteries, etc., and the effect of the sharp rise in volume and price was further enhanced.
The 26Q2 net profit of sample companies in the lithium battery industry was 51.3 billion yuan, up 107% year-on-year and 14% month-on-month, with a net profit margin of 10.62% in a single quarter. The industry's profit increased year-on-year for 6 consecutive quarters, and the profit growth rate was far higher than the revenue growth rate. On the one hand, due to the low base effect, and on the other hand, the resonance of multiple factors such as price increases, utilization rates, and inventory earnings led to a sharp increase in profits. Looking ahead, the resonance of multiple factors is difficult to reproduce.
Profit margin recovery is slowing
In terms of profit margin, 26Q2 gross profit margin was 20.7%, falling month-on-month after continuous improvement over multiple quarters, +1.4 pct year on month; 26Q2 net profit margin was 11%, +2 pct year on year, and -0.7 pct month-on-month.
The strong reality of the industry continues to be interpreted, and the downstream demand boom maintains high turnover and inventory growth. The operating rate of wet diaphragms, iron phosphate, and lithium hexafluorophosphate has broken through the 80% boom and dry line in recent months. The operating rate of lithium iron phosphate is approaching 80%, and the relationship between supply and demand continues to be tight. Compared to the second half of '25, 26Q2 recorded record highs in inventory turnover, such as diaphragms, copper foil, aluminum foil, and lithium carbonate. Judging from the inventory structure, 26H1 increased the proportion of 25H2 inventory products. It switched from preparing raw materials due to upstream price increases to the preparation stage of peak season+rush stocking. The battery cell depot sales ratio continued to decline. As of July '26, the energy storage cell depot sales ratio continued to decline. After a peak in mid-year shipments, it rebounded to 0.39, but it is still at a very low level in history; power cell depot sales have continued to improve compared to this year.
The lithium battery cycle is rising healthily, and capital expenditure is orderly
Capital expenditure in the lithium battery sector stopped falling in 25Q1 and remained around 23 billion yuan for 3 consecutive quarters, with a year-on-year growth rate of 30%-40%. The year-on-year growth rate has been positive for 7 consecutive quarters since 24Q4. Capital expenditure on the material side has mostly picked up, and the year-on-year growth rate is positive.
Looking at contract liabilities, there is still a continuing momentum for future performance growth. 26Q2 contract liabilities for copper and aluminum foil, ternary cathodes, lithium iron phosphate, and structural parts increased sharply year over year.
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