Guosheng Securities: China's apparel exports accelerated in July, textile manufacturing 2026H1 stock performance differentiation

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guosheng Securities released a research report saying that Vietnam's textile and footwear exports recently increased steadily and slightly over the same period last year, while China's apparel exports increased rapidly in July. There are differences on the revenue side of downstream garment manufacturing, and the differentiation on the profit side has intensified. Some companies in the upstream textile manufacturing sector have benefited from the increase in raw material prices and have ushered in a short-term profit release phase, and will follow up on changes in performance expectations. Currently, global downstream brands are relatively cautious in placing orders. The impact of many factors in the industry affects the profit margin of the 2026H1 industry chain. The 2026Q3 trend is uncertain, and the 2026Q4 profitability is expected to be repaired. Focus on subsequent changes in fundamental expectations.

Guosheng Securities's main views are as follows:

Industry exports

Recently, Vietnam's textile and footwear exports increased steadily and slightly year-on-year, while China's apparel exports increased rapidly in July. 1) China: From January to July 2026, the export value of clothing and clothing accessories was US$89.4 billion, +0.9% year-on-year (of which +8.5% year-on-year in July); the export value of textile yarn fabrics and their products was US$85.34 billion, +3.9% year-on-year (of which +6.4% year-on-year in July). 2) Vietnam: The total value of textile exports from January to July 2026 was US$22.86 billion, +1.2% year-on-year (including +1.8% year-on-month in July); total footwear export value was US$14.18 billion, +0.7% YoY (of which +1.6% YoY in July).

Monthly Shipments

Recently, some apparel manufacturing companies announced their July revenue, with Ruhong leading the way. The revenue of Fengtai Enterprise/Ruhong/Yuyuan Group (manufacturing business) in July 2026 was +1.0%/+23.3%/-10.0% year-on-year (cumulative difference of -3.0%/+6.0%/-5.5% from January to July 2026). There were differences in individual stocks, and monthly data fluctuated greatly.

Interim results and business trends

1. Downstream garment manufacturing: 1) There are differences on the revenue side: the global apparel terminal retail market is relatively stable, but the visibility of orders from garment manufacturers has declined, and there are differences in revenue between companies. 2) Increased profit differentiation: ① Factors such as exchange rates, tariff policies, and raw material prices put pressure on 2026H1 profit margins, such as Huali Group (2026Q2 revenue -10% /net profit to mother -37%), Shenzhou International (2026H1 revenue -5% YoY /-40% net profit to mother), Yuyuan Group (2026H1 revenue -2% YoY /-58% net profit to mother YoY), etc. ② Short-term orders and performance of some companies were relatively good, such as Jingyuan International (2026H1 revenue +5% YoY /YoY net profit +11%), Jiansheng Group (2026Q2 revenue +4% YoY /net profit excluding non-return to mother +9% YoY) Weixing Shares (2026Q2 revenue and net profit attributable to mother +19% YoY).

2. Upstream textile manufacturing: Some companies in the sector benefited from rising raw material prices and ushered in a short-term profit release phase (such as New Australia Shares and Blum Oriental), and followed up on changes in performance expectations.

Risk warning: the risk of weak consumption power and fluctuations in the consumption environment; new business development and optimization falling short of expectations; risk of fluctuations in exchange rates, raw material prices and tariff policies.