The US employment data has improved sharply, but the US dollar has taken back most of its gains. The market reaction to data that exceeded expectations was surprisingly lackluster. The last time employment data was so popular was in June. At that time, the initial value of new jobs in May surged 172,000, which was also much higher than market expectations. The US dollar rose 0.3% within 30 minutes after the data was released, reaching 0.6% for the whole day. This set of data has since been drastically revised, but the point is that the US dollar has not reacted as it did when economic data usually strengthened. Disturbed by the abnormal fluctuation of the yen, it is difficult to make a clear judgment. This is more due to market concerns about the Bank of Japan, or whether the market does not think this data is enough to support the Fed to implement the interest rate hike expected by the market. This wait-and-see sentiment is also reflected in the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike probability pricing: currently, the probability of a rate hike in September has rebounded to about 60%, but the market is not fully betting that it will raise interest rates this month. The reason is that policy officials have repeatedly emphasized that the core of deciding the September FOMC interest rate decision is inflation, not employment data.

The US employment data has improved sharply, but the US dollar has taken back most of its gains. The market reaction to data that exceeded expectations was surprisingly lackluster. The last time employment data was so popular was in June. At that time, the initial value of new jobs in May surged 172,000, which was also much higher than market expectations. The US dollar rose 0.3% within 30 minutes after the data was released, reaching 0.6% for the whole day. This set of data has since been drastically revised, but the point is that the US dollar has not reacted as it did when economic data usually strengthened. Disturbed by the abnormal fluctuation of the yen, it is difficult to make a clear judgment. This is more due to market concerns about the Bank of Japan, or whether the market does not think this data is enough to support the Fed to implement the interest rate hike expected by the market. This wait-and-see sentiment is also reflected in the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike probability pricing: currently, the probability of a rate hike in September has rebounded to about 60%, but the market is not fully betting that it will raise interest rates this month. The reason is that policy officials have repeatedly emphasized that the core of deciding the September FOMC interest rate decision is inflation, not employment data.