YONEX (TSE:7906) has drawn investor attention after a mixed stretch for the stock, with a slight gain over the past month contrasting with weaker recent weekly and year to date returns.
At a last close of ¥2,562 and a market value of about ¥218.6b, YONEX remains a sizeable player in sporting equipment, spanning badminton, tennis, golf, snowboards, and related footwear and apparel.
For investors watching the trend, YONEX’s share price return has slipped year to date, yet still shows a positive 3 month move of 9.25%. The 1 year total shareholder return is down 35.08%, although the 3 and 5 year total shareholder returns remain strongly positive.
Compare YONEX’s mixed return profile with hand picked peers by scanning 26 high quality undervalued stocks that pair solid cash generation with balance sheets built to handle setbacks.
Given YONEX’s long run of strong multi year returns but a weaker share price over the past year, it is worth asking whether the recent recovery hints at business strength or just a shift in market mood.
YONEX currently trades on a P/E of 16.3x, which screens as slightly expensive compared with both its own fair P/E estimate and close industry peers at the last close of ¥2,562.
The P/E ratio compares the share price with earnings per share, so a higher multiple often reflects the market paying more for each unit of current earnings. For a consumer-focused company like YONEX, this can hint that investors are willing to pay up for its earnings profile, but the available data suggests that premium is only marginal.
On the fair value side, YONEX is described as trading at a 38.1% discount to an internal estimate of intrinsic value, and at ¥2,562 the stock is below the SWS DCF model estimate of future cash flow value of ¥4,141.88. The DCF approach projects future cash flows and discounts them back to today, which can capture the effect of the company’s forecast revenue growth of 9% a year and earnings growth of 8.68% a year without relying solely on current earnings multiples.
Compared with the JP Leisure industry, where the average P/E is 16.1x and the peer average is 16.2x, YONEX’s 16.3x is only a shade higher, and slightly above the estimated fair P/E of 15.8x. That suggests the P/E premium over both sector and fair-value benchmarks is small, and the larger gap sits between the current share price and the DCF-based fair value estimate of ¥4,141.88.
Result: Price-to-earnings of 16.3x (OVERVALUED).
However, the recent 1 year shareholder return decline of 35.08% and a low value score of 2 suggest that sentiment could weaken further if earnings or cash flows disappoint.
Find out about the key risks to this YONEX narrative.
While the P/E of 16.3x makes YONEX look a touch expensive against peers and its fair ratio, the SWS DCF model points in the opposite direction. At ¥2,562 the stock trades at a 38.1% discount to an estimated future cash flow value of ¥4,141.88, which raises an obvious question: Which signal should you trust more?
For a closer look at how this cash flow based view is built and what assumptions sit behind it, check out the Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.
Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out YONEX for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 26 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.
Curious whether the cautious tone around YONEX matches your own view? Take a closer look at the underlying data, weigh the potential rewards, and review the 3 key rewards.
If YONEX has you thinking more broadly about where to put fresh capital, treat this as the moment to widen your watchlist rather than stick with familiar options.
Build on what you have learned here and use the Simply Wall St Screener to spot other stocks and approaches that could suit your investing style.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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