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    Does AngloGold Ashanti (AU)’s Surging EBITDA With Flat Guidance Reveal a Deeper Efficiency Story?

    Simply Wall St·09/04/2026 20:28:06
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    • In the first half of 2026, AngloGold Ashanti reported very large year-on-year EBITDA growth to US$4.30 billion, driven by higher metal prices, stronger equity earnings, and cost efficiencies despite a slight production decline following the Serra Grande sale and operational issues.
    • An interesting takeaway is that AngloGold Ashanti kept its full-year production guidance and expects higher second-half output, suggesting its Full Asset Potential cost-efficiency program is helping offset recent operational setbacks while benefiting from firm gold prices.
    • We’ll now examine how AngloGold Ashanti’s strong first-half EBITDA performance and maintained production guidance affect its broader investment narrative.

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    AngloGold Ashanti Investment Narrative Recap

    To own AngloGold Ashanti, you need to believe that firm gold prices and disciplined cost control can support healthy margins even when production stumbles. The latest H1 2026 update, with strong EBITDA and unchanged full year guidance, supports the near term earnings catalyst but does not remove the key risk that higher costs or weaker gold prices could quickly compress those margins.

    Among recent announcements, the proposed US$2.0 billion share repurchase program stands out alongside the strong first half results. If approved, it would reinforce the earnings and cash flow story highlighted by the 82% year on year EBITDA increase, but it also heightens the importance of sustaining cash generation in the face of potential cost inflation and production challenges at key assets.

    Yet investors should also weigh how rising cost pressures at certain mines could challenge this picture over time...

    Read the full narrative on AngloGold Ashanti (it's free!)

    AngloGold Ashanti's narrative projects $12.1 billion revenue and $5.5 billion earnings by 2029. This requires essentially flat yearly revenue growth and an earnings increase of about $1.7 billion from $3.8 billion today.

    Uncover how AngloGold Ashanti's forecasts yield a $113.12 fair value, in line with its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    AU 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    AU 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Some of the most optimistic analysts were already projecting revenue near US$20 billion and earnings around US$6.4 billion by 2029, so this earnings jump may either strengthen their case or prompt a rethink of how much rising costs and asset maturity could still limit that upside, reminding you that even well informed views on AngloGold Ashanti can differ sharply.

    Explore 5 other fair value estimates on AngloGold Ashanti - why the stock might be worth just $113.12!

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.