Fan Limin, chief Asian economist and Asia co-head of HSBC Global Investment Research, said that the role of low interest rates is not structural, but only cyclical. Low interest rates will not be the engine of this round of acceleration of RMB internationalization. The real driving force of RMB internationalization is the opening up of the system and the optimal implementation of regulatory rules. He also judged that interest rates in China are unlikely to rise significantly for a long time. Referring to the next round of major changes, Fan Limin believes that the trigger is more likely to come from changes in the US dollar. Fan Limin cited three scenarios where the US dollar may weaken: the AI boom bubble bursts, AI industry dividends are shifting to other regions of the world, and the US government artificially suppressing bond yields. “The probability of these three scenarios occurring within the next 6 to 9 months is low. However, looking at 2028, 2029, and 2030, the possibility of these scenarios will increase, and the dollar may experience a round of sharp depreciation at that time.” He said that the euro, yen, some Asian currencies, and the Canadian dollar are expected to benefit, and there is room for the RMB to appreciate in this context.

Fan Limin, chief Asian economist and Asia co-head of HSBC Global Investment Research, said that the role of low interest rates is not structural, but only cyclical. Low interest rates will not be the engine of this round of acceleration of RMB internationalization. The real driving force of RMB internationalization is the opening up of the system and the optimal implementation of regulatory rules. He also judged that interest rates in China are unlikely to rise significantly for a long time. Referring to the next round of major changes, Fan Limin believes that the trigger is more likely to come from changes in the US dollar. Fan Limin cited three scenarios where the US dollar may weaken: the AI boom bubble bursts, AI industry dividends are shifting to other regions of the world, and the US government artificially suppressing bond yields. “The probability of these three scenarios occurring within the next 6 to 9 months is low. However, looking at 2028, 2029, and 2030, the possibility of these scenarios will increase, and the dollar may experience a round of sharp depreciation at that time.” He said that the euro, yen, some Asian currencies, and the Canadian dollar are expected to benefit, and there is room for the RMB to appreciate in this context.