Northeast Securities: The era of high-power cooling opens up new opportunities for submerged liquid cooling media
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Northeast Securities released a research report saying that liquid cooling media is the core material for liquid cooling systems to achieve heat transfer and is expected to directly benefit from the rapid expansion of the industry. Cold plate liquid cooling still dominates the market; immersion liquid cooling is expected to accelerate applications as demand for high-power computing power grows. Fluorinated liquid is an important medium for immersion liquid cooling, and the restructuring of the global supply pattern has brought development opportunities to domestic enterprises. With cost, safety and environmental advantages, silicon-based coolants are expected to become an important route for immersion liquid cooling.
The main views of Northeast Securities are as follows:
Global demand for AI computing power is growing rapidly, and liquid cooling is gradually shifting from optional solutions to rigid requirements for high-power computing power facilities
According to data from the Chinese Academy of Information and Communications Technology, by the end of 2024, the global computing power scale reached 628 EFLOPS, +14.0% year over year; the scale of intelligent computing power reached 5,693 EFLOPS, +64.7% year over year. As chip power consumption and cabinet power density continue to increase, traditional air cooling is gradually approaching the heat dissipation limit. Liquid cooling can effectively improve heat dissipation efficiency, reduce cooling energy consumption, and help reduce data center PUE below 1.25. According to UBS data, the global data center direct liquid cooling market is expected to increase from US$1.14 billion in 2024 to US$31.19 billion in 2030, with a CAGR of about 73.6%. Liquid cooling media are the core materials for liquid cooling systems to achieve heat transfer, and are expected to directly benefit from the rapid expansion of the industry.
Liquid cooling technology routes evolve at an accelerated pace, and demand for high power density drives faster penetration of immersive liquid cooling
Currently, cold plate liquid cooling still occupies the mainstream of the market due to its advantages such as high technical maturity and low difficulty in upgrading existing facilities; submerged liquid cooling has a shorter heat transfer path and higher heat dissipation efficiency, and is expected to accelerate application as demand for high-power computing power grows. According to estimates, in 2024-2029, China's submersible liquid-cooled server market will increase from 120 million US dollars to 3.23 billion US dollars, a CAGR of about 93%. Looking at the cooling medium, it currently mainly forms three major systems: water-based, oil-based, and fluorinated liquid. Among them, water-based coolants are mainly used in cold plate liquid cooling; oil coolants are mainly used in single-phase immersion liquid cooling due to their advantages such as low cost, good insulation and stability; fluorinated liquids have excellent insulation performance, thermal stability and phase change heat transfer capacity, and have great application potential in both single-phase and two-phase immersion liquid cooling.
Fluorinated liquid is an important medium for immersion liquid cooling. The restructuring of the global supply pattern brings development opportunities to domestic enterprises
The global high-end electronic fluoride market has long been dominated by European and American companies such as 3M and Solvay. 3M completely withdrew from the PFAS related product business at the end of 2025. Previously, the annual revenue of its PFAS products was about 1.3 billion US dollars, and fluorinated liquid was an important part of it. Affected by this, the global fluorinated liquid supply pattern is being restructured at an accelerated pace. About 80% of the global semiconductor coolant market is facing supplier switching, providing an important window for domestic companies to enter the overseas supply chain system. In terms of product segments, hydrofluoroethers, perfluoropolyethers, and perfluoroolefins are currently the main technical routes for fluorinated liquids. Among them, hydrofluorofluoride technology is highly mature and has been pioneered in the field of electronic cooling, but due to dielectric performance limitations, the application space in high-performance immersion liquid cooling is relatively limited; perfluoropolyether has excellent comprehensive performance and is an important choice for high-reliability immersion liquid cooling, but its high cost and global warming potential limit its large-scale application; perfluoroolefins have both good insulation properties and large-scale preparation potential. Cost advantages are gradually showing, and are expected to become an important development direction for immersion liquid cooling in data centers.
Oil coolant is an important medium for single-phase immersion liquid cooling. Silicon-based coolants have a better balance between performance and cost
Oil coolants mainly include mineral oil, synthetic oil, and silicon-based coolant. Among them, silicon-based coolants have characteristics such as high insulation, high flash point, low evaporation, and no PFAS, and are less expensive than fluorinated liquids. In terms of industrialization, Dow has launched the ICL series of products; Runhe Materials has created a “trinity” solution for modified silicone coolants, thermal interface materials, and instant protective materials; Xinan Co., Ltd. has achieved commercial applications. The power density of a single cabinet in related projects has reached 210 kW, and the system PUE can be reduced to less than 1.1. With cost, safety and environmental advantages, silicon-based coolants are expected to become an important route for immersion liquid cooling.
Risk warning: Liquid cooling penetration rate falls short of expectations, market competition increases risk, etc.