Austal shares are surging. Is a bidding war brewing?

Austal shares climbed again this week, extending a run that has now added more than 30% since July.

The catalyst for this? The possibility that a second buyer has appeared for the company's American shipyard.

Why Austal shares are moving

Austal Ltd (ASX: ASB) confirmed on Monday that it had held an initial discussion with Wildcat Infrastructure, a United States investment firm, after media reports identified it as a potential buyer of Austal USA.

The company was clear that it had not received a formal offer.

The reason the market reacted at all is that a bidder already exists.

Hanwha Defence USA lodged a non-binding, indicative proposal in August, and the board granted it a four-week due diligence window.

A second interested party changes the negotiating dynamic significantly for Austal.

What Hanwha has actually offered

Hanwha's proposal values Austal USA at between US$1.05 billion and US$1.2 billion on an enterprise value basis, cash and debt free.

It is an offer for the shares in the Austal USA holding entities only.

It explicitly excludes the listed shares in Austal Limited, the Australasian operations across Australia, the Philippines and Vietnam, and the Strategic Shipbuilding Agreement with the Commonwealth.

Completion would require approval from CFIUS, the Defense Counterintelligence and Security Agency, and United States antitrust regulators.

The board set out its thinking in the announcement.

The Austal Board and its advisers have carefully assessed the Proposal and determined that it merits further evaluation, approving Hanwha to undertake due diligence related to Austal USA to improve the certainty of any proposal.

Hanwha is already Austal's largest shareholder with 19.9% of the register, a stake approved by the Treasurer in December 2025 with conditions attached.

The FY26 result behind the bid

Austal's full-year numbers explain why the American business is the one on the block.

Revenue rose 11% to $2.03 billion and the order book reached a record $16.5 billion.

The Australasian division produced record earnings before interest and tax of $85.3 million, up 137%.

Austal USA went the other way, posting a $202.8 million EBIT loss after provisions on legacy Navy programs, which dragged the group to a statutory loss of $53.6 million.

Chief executive Paddy Gregg described the Australian side as follows:

Outside of the US, never before has the Australian business been in such an enviable position, with a long-term order book and a strategic agreement that will provide decades of stability and growth.

What a sale would mean for Austal shares

Austal's whole market capitalisation is roughly $1.8 billion.

The indicative value placed on Austal USA alone is between A$1.5 billion and A$1.7 billion.

If a sale completed near that range, shareholders would be left holding a debt-free Australian shipbuilder with record earnings and a decade of committed work, plus a very large pile of cash.

However, investors should nonetheless adopt a degree of caution.

Hanwha's proposal is non-binding, Wildcat has made no offer, and United States regulatory approval is not a formality.

Foolish takeaway

Austal shares are still down over twelve months, which tells you how much damage the American contracts did.

A competitive process for Austal USA would be the fastest available route to recovering some of that.

Ultimately, the Australian business is performing well enough to justify holding whatever happens, and that is the better reason to own Austal shares today.

The post Austal shares are surging. Is a bidding war brewing? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Motley Fool contributor Mark Verhoeven has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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