The BTC gold fork is now at $70,000, and the US inflation data will change in September
According to Woofun AI, the price of Bitcoin has fallen below the key psychological threshold of $78,500. At the same time, a rare technical gold fork pattern has quietly formed, providing an important bottom signal for the current volatile market situation. Despite short-term price downward pressure, the emergence of this technical indicator suggests that the long-term trend may be undergoing a subtle shift, and the market focus is rapidly shifting from simple competition for points to an in-depth interpretation of macroeconomic data and technology resonance.
Judging from an in-depth technical analysis, Bitcoin's transaction price on the Bitstamp platform dropped to $78,350 on September 8, then showed a slight recovery. Currently, the asset's price range is locked between the first Fibonacci support level near $76,600 and the $79,500 to $80,000 resistance range that needs to be regained.
Notably, as Bitcoin effectively broke through the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level near $76,580 at the end of August, this level immediately established itself as the primary support line on the daily chart. The recent price retracement briefly tested this area, but Bitcoin quickly rebounded above this level, thus maintaining the current rebound trend. If Bitcoin falls below $76,600 at the daily level, the next key Fibonacci support level will move down to around $73,000. On the resistance side, despite Bitcoin's previous unsuccessful attempts to break above $82,000, $82,400 still forms a strong upward pressure zone. The more central technical signal is the formation of a gold fork: when the 50-day simple moving average crosses the 200-day moving average in the downward direction, it forms a bullish golden fork pattern.
Traders generally view this as a positive signal because it means that short-term price increases faster than the long-term trend, although the signal is lagging and cannot predict daily movements alone. In the current context, the importance of this crossover is that it just happened to be near the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. Specific data shows that the 50-day moving average is around $69,956, the 200-day moving average is about $69,869, and the 50% retracement level is around $70,063. Together, these three levels create a dense support cluster. Even if the price falls further to around $70,000, although it will weaken short-term upward momentum, it can at least rely on this dual support system composed of moving averages and Fibonacci levels to obtain stronger technical defense capabilities.
According to data compiled by Woofun AI, the flow of funds in the Binance Futures market reveals a complex game pattern. Despite Bitcoin's rebound from recent lows, selling pressure is still significant. CryptoQuant's analysis of the Bitcoin buy/sell ratio on the Binance platform indicates that when Bitcoin is trading around $79,000, the ratio is around 0.917.
This ratio measures the volume of transactions that are immediately executed based on existing liquidity, not price limit orders in the order book. A ratio of less than 1 means that sales volume exceeded purchases during the statistical period, indicating that sellers are more likely to accept current offers. However, this does not reflect all Bitcoin demand, nor does it confirm the start of a sharp downtrend. This data only covers the Binance futures market and does not reflect positions in the spot market, ETF operations, or other derivatives markets. Its core value is to be used as a short-term indicator to determine the dominant force in futures trading. Looking back at historical data, the ratio has fluctuated above and below neutral levels several times since May. In May and August, when the ratio was above 1.10 or even 1.20, the Bitcoin price showed a strong upward trend; in June, July, and August, the ratio also fell below 1 several times. Therefore, although the current ratio of 0.917 shows strong selling pressure, it does not mean the end of the rebound. If Bitcoin wants to reclaim the resistance zone, traders are looking forward to seeing the price recover while the ratio returns above 1 to confirm that active buyers are once again dominating the market.
Driven by macro events and future market prospects, investors are closely watching the US inflation data for August. PPI (Producer Price Index) will be announced on September 10, followed by CPI (Consumer Price Index) on September 11. These data are critical as they could reshape the market's policy expectations for the Federal Reserve's September meeting. The release of PPI and CPI is one of the top five events affecting the cryptocurrency market this week. If inflation data is higher than expected, it will reinforce expectations of austerity policies; conversely, moderate data can help ease pressure on risky assets.
Furthermore, the tension between the US and Iran remains unresolved, continuing to add uncertainty to the energy market and overall risk sentiment. Bitcoin needs to hold the initial support level and recover the resistance zone before it can hit $82,400 once again. Once it breaks below support, $73,000 will become the new focus, while the gold fork support cluster around $70,000 is a more critical downward line of defense.