Pacific Securities: Michelle Group (02097) 26H1 revenue increased 2.3% year-on-year, supply chain and brand moats support long-term development
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Pacific Securities released a research report saying that in the first half of 2026, the Michelle Group (02097) achieved revenue of 15.216 billion yuan, an increase of 2.3% over the previous year; net profit to mother was 2,296 billion yuan, and gross profit of 4.630 billion yuan. The company paid dividends for the first time since its listing. It plans to pay a special dividend of about 1.06 billion yuan, with a dividend ratio of about 44%. The bank believes that the core competitiveness of the Michelle Group stems from its deep supply chain and brand moat. According to the company's performance and recent situation, the bank adjusted the company's profit forecast. The revenue for 2026-2028 is expected to be 34 billion yuan, 37.3 billion yuan, and 40.8 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 1%, 10%, and 9%; net profit to mother is 5.1 billion yuan, 5.8 billion yuan, and 6.6 billion yuan respectively; EPS is 13.56 yuan, 15.17 yuan, and 17.34 yuan, respectively, corresponding to the current stock price PE, which is 13 times, 12 times, and 10 times, respectively.
Pacific Securities's main views are as follows:
The pace of expansion is actively shifting gears, and the chassis is still stable in the sinking market
By business, in the first half of 2026, product and equipment sales revenue, franchise and related service revenue reached 14.798 billion yuan and 418 million yuan respectively, up 2.1% and 10.0% year-on-year respectively, and the growth rate of franchise service revenue was higher than the overall rate. By the end of the first half of 2026, the total number of global stores reached 63,987, a net increase of 4,164 from the end of 2025, including 63,951 franchised stores and 36 direct-run stores, respectively. By region, the number of stores in mainland China and overseas was 59,609 and 4,378 respectively, a net increase of 4,253 and a decrease of 89, respectively, from the end of 2025. The trend of opening domestic stores continues, and the overseas Indonesian and Vietnamese markets continue to adjust and optimize operations, and the scale of stores is gradually shrinking; at the same time, the “Michelle Ice City” brand has entered the Mexican, Kyrgyz and Brazilian markets. By city, the first-tier, new-tier, second-tier, third-tier and lower stores were 2,906, 10,696, 11,417, and 34,590, respectively. Third-tier stores and below accounted for 58.0%, and the advantages of the sinking market continued to consolidate.
Double line cultivation of fresh coffee and beer, and the second curve blossomed more
Relying on the triple core competitiveness of “supply chain+brand IP+store operation”, the company continues to enrich product categories and promote platform-based development. The sub-brand “Lucky Coffee” revolved around the upgrade of “fresh beans, fresh milk, fresh fruit, on-site production”. About 50% of stores introduced low-temperature fresh milk, and the HPP fresh fruit series sold over one million cups in the first week. The coffee preparation method has been upgraded from “fresh brew” to “freshly ground”, and fully automatic coffee machines have covered more than 3,000 stores. The company completed a strategic merger and acquisition of the “Fresh Beer Fukuya” brand in 2025, extended the product category to freshly brewed fresh beer, and built a diverse product matrix covering fruit beer, tea beer, milk beer, etc. In addition, the company launched the ninth generation store version. The flagship stores have covered 26 cities in China, improving the quality and efficiency of store operations.
Quality upgrades, supply chain barriers support long-term resilience
In the first half of 2026, the company's gross margin was 30.4%, and strategic investment was made to further improve product quality around the “true, fresh and pure” product concept. The company produces 100% of its core beverage ingredients independently, the digital procurement network covers the world, and has solid supply chain barriers, providing support for long-term development. On the cost side, the sales and distribution expenditure ratio, administrative expenditure ratio, and R&D expenditure ratio were 7.4%, 4.0%, and 0.3%, respectively. The year-on-year increase was 1.2 percentage points, up 1.1 percentage points, and remained flat. The increase in cost rates was mainly due to increased brand IP construction, store operation support, and labor costs. Taken together, the net return interest rate for the first half of 2026 was 15.1%, down 3.0 percentage points from the previous year.
Risk warning: Food safety risks, store development falls short of expectations, industry competition intensifies risks.