Guoxin Securities: Rapid increase in Q2 shipments of lithium battery companies, focus on the high profitability and vertical integration opportunities in the lithium battery sector
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guoxin Securities released a research report saying that demand for energy storage continued to improve in the third quarter, and domestic NEV shipments maintained a rapid month-on-month upward trend, and the cost side actively conveyed or pushed profitability to remain stable, moderate and positive; it is recommended to focus on the high profitability and vertical integration opportunities in the lithium battery sector. AIDC power equipment products are iterating to DC high voltage, and more domestic companies are facing opportunities to overtake important bends, which is expected to enter the global AIDC supply chain. Household and commercial savings in overseas regions continued to grow. The wind power industry is rising at an inflection point, focusing on mainframes, components, and leading companies in the ocean breeze.
Guoxin Securities's main views are as follows:
Lithium battery companies' Q2 shipments increased rapidly, and most companies' performance maintained rapid growth
Demand for energy storage remained strong, domestic NEV exports remained strong. Shipments of 2026Q2 mobile battery companies mostly grew by more than 50% year on year, with a month-on-month increase of 20%-30%, and the net profit per battery unit maintained a steady, moderate positive trend; in terms of materials, lithium iron phosphate operating profits were steady and ternary cathode profits were improving; negative electrode profits were slightly pressured by fluctuations in raw material prices; profit continued to rise; lithium hexafluorophosphate was marginally weakened by price fluctuations. Looking ahead to the third quarter, demand for energy storage continues to improve, and domestic NEVs enter the peak season to drive industrial chain shipments to maintain a rapid month-on-month increase trend, and the cost side actively transmits or pushes profitability to remain stable, moderate and positive. It is recommended to focus on leading companies in the fields of batteries, diaphragms, copper foil, solid state batteries, and sodium batteries.
Global demand for energy storage is growing steadily, and systems and PCS are going overseas faster
Domestic energy storage market-based demand is driving explosive growth in orders; US data center development is driving up demand for large storage purchases; rising European gas prices and market-based electricity price development are driving energy storage demand; emerging market government energy storage policies are frequent. Global energy storage installed demand is expected to reach 455 GWh in 2026, an increase of +40% over the previous year.
Domestic demand for wind power is gradually recovering, and exports contribute to long-term performance growth
Recently, domestic electricity prices for new energy mechanisms have been rising steadily, and wind power installations and tenders have shown a recovery trend. In terms of sea breeze, the “15th Five-Year Plan” for renewable energy was released. It is planned to start an additional 100 million kilowatts of construction, with a cumulative installed capacity of 100 million kilowatts. The long-term space is clear. Tendering for the European Seabreeze project has been delayed since the beginning of the year. The UK is expected to complete the AR8 project tender before the end of the year, and overseas demand is expected to break out of its trough. In 2026, fan exports will maintain a high level of prosperity, providing room for long-term profit growth for the industry. The focus is on leading mainframe, parts and sea breezes companies.
The certainty of grid investment is prominent, and we continue to focus on AIDC and overseas leaders
UHV tenders exceeded 29.2 billion in the first half of the year (more than last year), and key projects were delivered one after another in the second half of the year. In terms of distribution networks, the first batch of collection results of this year was released in June. Prices bottomed out and repaired, and the concentration of distribution network equipment increased steadily. Grid investment is highly certain, and is expected to continue to strengthen in the context of capital rebalancing. AIDC gradually showed flexibility in orders and performance from related companies in the second half of the year; overseas supply of medium- and high-voltage equipment was still tight, and Chinese companies went overseas at an accelerated pace. Focus on domestic demand, overseas, and leading AIDC companies.
Risk warning: Risk of policy changes; rising prices of raw materials such as petroleum, copper, aluminum, etc., rising production costs; production and sales of electric vehicles fall short of expectations.