Zhitong Hong Kong Stock Exchange Unravels | The US and Iran are once again intensifying energy and shipping tension, optical communications are leading the way in technology and hardware

[Anatomy Dashboard]

In recent days, turbulence in the Middle East has become a major factor in suppressing market sentiment. The Hang Seng Index fell 0.17% again today.

The US Central Command announced on the same day that the US military destroyed five Iranian oil tankers carrying crude oil. This is a countermeasure against Iran's two attempts to attack US Navy ships with ballistic missiles. Iran immediately launched a missile at Jordan and issued a warning to ships in the Persian Gulf waters. The situation further intensified. Brent crude oil rose 2.3% in the intraday period, breaking through 100 US dollars/barrel. Oil transportation has had the greatest impact. Currently, VLCC freight rates have risen again to 160,000 to 170,000 US dollars/day, and global inventories are low. It is expected that demand for replenishment will gradually be released from September to next year, and COSCO (01138) will rise more than 5%; according to this trend, global shipping will continue to be in a state of disarray, and the demand for ships will only increase unabated. China Shipbuilding (00317) received new orders of 20.65 billion yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 30.11% over the previous year. The total contract price for the company's handheld orders is about 74.5 billion yuan, of which the total price of in-hand shipbuilding contracts is about 347 billion yuan 100 million yuan, in a state of short supply Today, it's up more than 6%.

Second, under high oil prices, the status of coal as an energy substitute is rising. Power Development (01277) has risen by more than 4%, while Yankuang Energy (01171), China Shenhua (01088), and Shougang Resources (00639) have all increased by more than 2%.

Copper prices hit a record high yesterday, and aluminum is keeping up. Affected by geopolitics, supply tightening expectations have increased. Domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is close to the policy ceiling, and long-term supply growth is limited. LME March aluminum closed up to 3,341 US dollars/ton yesterday. China Hongqiao (01378) and Nanshan Aluminum International (02610) both rose more than 4%, while Innovation Industry (02788) rose more than 5%. In terms of performance, China Hongqiao's net profit for the first half of 2026 was 17.21 billion yuan, an increase of 39.2% over the previous year, and the semi-annual results reached a new high. Zimbabwe immediately banned the export of antimony and tungsten, and the leading company Jiaxin International Resources (03858) increased by nearly 7%.

New concept stocks have continued to be active in recent days, and the market is hyping up a benchmark every year. Jinhai Medical Technology (02225) is undoubtedly the brightest. Today, it has risen more than 13%, and has already exceeded 50% for three consecutive days. The company's story is that it has transformed from a company that exports labor services in Singapore to medical devices, and has borne fruit. The company's revenue share from minimally invasive surgery solutions, medical products and related service fees has climbed to 74.73% in the first half of the year.

Goldman Sachs drastically raised industry forecasts in its latest global optical module report. Global optical module shipments are expected to reach 548 million, 691 million, and 729 million units from 2026 to 2028, up 21%, 31%, and 31% from previous forecasts. This round of upgrades is not simply due to an increase in the number of AI servers; more importantly, the AI server architecture continues to migrate to high-speed networks. Coupled with the increase in the number of optical modules required for a single GPU or ASIC chip, it is driving the rapid deployment of 800G, 1.6T, and even 3.2T demand. The main MPO business of Zhitong Gold Stock Exchange Technology (01729) continued to grow rapidly in September. On the other hand, new products such as optical communication CPO and 800V power cables are about to be released. Hongteng Precision Technology (06088) participated in the Shenzhen 2026CIOE Optoelectronics Expo from September 9 to 11 and exhibited a product layout covering 1.6T high-speed optical modules, ELSFP external laser light source modules, and XPO high-density connection solutions. As a first-class core component supplier for Nvidia, today it has risen more than 7%.

Yesterday, Corning and Nokia signed an agreement of more than 80 million core miles (about 130 million core kilometers), which marks the end of the DCI supercycle. Moreover, DCI also has a very good iterative upgrade logic. North America is now small-core A1. In the future, air cores and multi-cores will be used, and air cores are hundreds of times more expensive. Leading Changfei Optical Fiber (06869) is still worth looking forward to, rising more than 7% today. The strengthening of AI cannot bypass Lenovo Group (00992). The company's 2029 convertible debt-for-share window closed on September 7, and most of the share transfers were completed; the remaining small amount will be redeemed in cash, and no additional share capital will be diluted in the future, and capital concerns will be resolved. With the sharp rise in memory prices, demand for PCs is weakening. According to data from market research agency IDC, global PC shipments in the second quarter of 2026 were about 68.2 million units, down 4.9% year on year. This is the first time the global PC market has declined after nine consecutive quarters of growth. However, in stark contrast to the decline in shipments, the company's revenue did not fall but rose, and “supplementing with price” is becoming an active path to maintain or even expand the scale of revenue. Lenovo's PC business revenue increased by about 30%, showing a “sell less but more expensive” growth model. On the other hand, cloud tokens are too expensive, and some AI workloads have begun to migrate to terminals. Gartner previously predicted that AI PCs could account for 55% of global PC shipments in 2026. Follow-up key observations: whether the share of AI PCs in commercial orders can increase, whether Qira's activity can be converted into actual workload, whether equipment sales can drive service revenue, and whether high-growth infrastructure businesses can maintain profit margins. Today's increase is nearly 7%, and Lenovo Holdings (03396) is up nearly 8%.

From September 14th to 20th, the global commercial vehicle industry will host the 2026 Hanover International Transport Fair, an impressive top industry event. Unlike previous events, this year's Hanover Motor Show will be particularly lively. A large number of Chinese commercial vehicles, special vehicles and parts companies will participate in the exhibition with forward-looking technology products and technical solutions. Various new cars will debut in the world, and there will also be major cooperation signing and delivery ceremonies. Sinotruk (03808) will bring 5 new iterative and upgraded models. Among them, the new-generation Shandeka 4×2 pure electric tractor uses an industry-leading 800V high-voltage platform, equipped with a 600-degree high-capacity battery pack, and an integrated battery chassis structure. Under 44-ton fully loaded standard trunk line conditions, the vehicle can achieve a stable battery life of nearly 500 kilometers, with electricity consumption as low as 110 degrees per 100 kilometers, which is extremely competitive. Today, it will rise more than 4%; Weichai Power (02338) will bring 18 innovative products covering high-efficiency internal combustion engines, hybrid, and hydrogen energy Battery and electric drive multiple technical tracks, Covering traditional energy, new energy, and tri-electric core components, three products were heavily released on site: NG4.0 gas power, WPH15DI hydrogen internal combustion engine hybrid assembly, and EM300 new-generation heavy truck bottom battery. Today it is up more than 6%.

The medical insurance and drug negotiations came to an end in 2026. The main stimulus for the market was proprietary Chinese medicines. A number of proprietary Chinese medicines successfully passed the preliminary review and entered the negotiation process, including Tianshili Zao Renning Heart Drop Pills, Hainan Kangmaoxin Peach Red Siwu Soup Granules, Jilin Aodong Loquat Lung Cleansing Drink Granules, and Shenwei Pharmaceutical (02877) Peony Licorice Soup Granules. Market expectations: If Shenwei Pharmaceutical is successfully included in the medical insurance catalogue, the newly approved classic famous formula granules can quickly enter hospitals and be sold in bulk. The company held a board meeting on September 18 to consider declaring a special interim dividend to the company's shareholders. Today it surged more than 11%.

[Section Focus]

On Thursday (September 10) at 1 a.m. Beijing time, Apple's annual iPhone product launch will be held at ApplePark. The theme is “Surprise and Shine” (Surprise and Shine). Outsiders expect that not only will Apple release the first folding screen iPhone, but this will also be the first press conference since Apple's new CEO John Ternus (John Ternus) took charge of Apple, marking Apple's official entry into the “post-Cook era.” The first folding screen iPhone was undoubtedly the absolute protagonist of this press conference.

This press conference is critical for Apple. Whether it can open up the situation depends on the performance of the folding screen iPhone. The key depends on how the price is determined, because it determines sales. The main types of fruit chains are: Lixun Precision (02475), Lansi Technology (06613), Shunyu Optics (02382), BYD Electronics (00285), Ruisheng Technology (02018), Hongteng Precision (06088), and Gaowei Electronics (01415).

[Individual Stock Mining]

Shougang Resources (00639): Thermal coal and coking coal prices accelerate upward, high dividend returns boost shareholders' confidence

The company's revenue for the first half of the year was HK$3.24 billion, +54% year over year; net profit to mother was HK$589 million, +46% year over year, up 61% of the previously anticipated net profit of HK$967 million for the full year. Gross profit was HK$1,122 million, an increase of 75% over the same period last year, and gross margin increased from 31% to 35%.

Comment: The supply and demand pattern continues to be tight, and the prices of thermal coal and coking coal are rising at the same time. The company operates three coal mines in the core coking coal production area of Liulin, Shanxi, and Xingwu, Jinjiazhuang and Zhaiyadi, with a total approved annual production capacity of 6.3 million tons of raw coal. The company 1H26 achieved 2.79 million tons of raw coking coal production, +6% over the same period, an increase of 150,000 tons; the production of fine coking coal was 1.95 million tons, +27% over the same period; based on the two estimates, the elution rate may increase by more than 10 pcts. The company believes that it mainly benefits from the increase in the production ratio of medium sulfur coking coal and the decrease in the proportion of coal gangue. The company's 1H26 coking coal achieved an average average price of 1,237 yuan/ton, an increase of 170 yuan/ton over the same period (between +17% and high sulphur coking coal in Liulin). The company's 1H26 coking coal unit production cost was 385 yuan/ton, +17% over the same period, an increase of 57 yuan/ton; the unit processing fee for fine coking coal was 47 yuan/ton, +7% over the same period, an increase of 3 yuan/ton. Considering the increase in the washing out rate, it is estimated that the unit cost of the company's coking coal is -3% compared to the same period, a reduction of 20 yuan/ton. Average prices increased and costs decreased. The company's gross margin after deducting the coal trading business in 1H26 reached 44%, +4.2pct year-on-year. Against the backdrop of stricter domestic safety regulations, the country's coking coal supply has shrunk markedly. 26H1 national/Shanxi coking coal production fell 4%/7% year on year, respectively, and fell 10%/23% year on year in June. As of August 12, production capacity of 71.9 million tons in Shanxi was still in a state of discontinuation, and production of resumed coal mines decreased by an average of 34% compared to before production was stopped. The contraction in domestic production combined with rising import costs of Mongolian coal is expected to maintain a high level of operation at the H2 coking coal price center. The company's finances are extremely stable, historically maintaining a high dividend strategy, and outstanding dividend returns. The balance ratio is only 18.63%, almost no interest-bearing debt, and abundant cash flow. 1H26 plans to pay an interim dividend of HK10 cents per share, an increase of 4 HK cents over the previous year, with a dividend payout ratio of 86% (1H23/1H24/1H25 was 40%/53%/76% respectively, continuing the high-ratio dividend strategy, which is highly attractive. After performance fluctuations brought about by the conversion of coal from one group to another in 2025, the company has consistently provided stable returns to shareholders, highlighting the value of dividend allocation. The company's refined coal production surged 27% in the first half of 2026. The rise in coal prices led to a sharp improvement in gross profit. The three mines gradually reached production, and raw coal production rose steadily.