Dear Trade Desk Stock Fans, Mark Your Calendars for September 21

Once a high-flying $141 stock, The Trade Desk (TTD) became one of the most hated stocks on the S&P 500 ($SPX). Now trading at around $14, with a market cap of just $6.78 billion (a fraction of the $69 billion market cap peak in 2024), it’s getting booted from the index on Monday, Sept. 21.

The Trade Desk is set to leave the S&P 500 as part of the latest quarterly index reshuffling by S&P Dow Jones Indices. However, the consolation prize is that it will be added to the S&P SmallCap 600. Unsurprisingly, none of this news is helping the stock, as sentiment toward TTD is as negative as it’s ever been. In this situation, TTD stock could see less visibility from major analysts once it leaves the S&P 500. However, because it will remain in the S&P family, it could see less extreme price volatility than if it were to drop out of the S&P family entirely.

Still, The Trade Desk Has Had a Brutal Run

Following the company's disappointing second-quarter 2026 results, investors have grown tired of the stock. Second-quarter revenue increased just 3% year-over-year (YoY) to $715 million, which was well below the $751.4 million analysts had expected. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.34, missing expectations of $0.40. Net income dropped to $64 million from $90 million a year earlier, while adjusted EBITDA declined to $241 million from $271 million.

“This quarter did not meet the standard we set for ourselves, but it has reinforced our belief that we are focused on the right opportunities for the future,” said Jeff Green, Co-Founder and CEO of The Trade Desk, as quoted in the company’s earnings release. “Marketers are navigating a complex environment, but complexity increases the value of decisioning, measurement and AI. We have a clear understanding of the factors that impacted our performance, and we are taking decisive action to strengthen our execution, upgrade our platform, and sharpen our focus on the areas where we can create the greatest value.”

And Then Came the Guidance

Unfortunately, the third-quarter outlook made the situation look even worse. The Trade Desk guided for third-quarter revenue of at least $650 million, which would be a 12% decline YoY. That means the company went from delivering 18% revenue growth in the third quarter of 2025 to a potential 12% YoY decline. Adding more near-term pressure is Sept. 21. The S&P 500 removal won't change The Trade Desk's underlying business. But its removal could easily create another round of selling pressure as funds rebalance their portfolios. In addition, investors may also try to get ahead of those trades, which means some of the pressure could show up before Sept. 21.

But again, as noted above, the stock could see less visibility from major analysts once it leaves the S&P 500. However, because it will remain in the S&P family, it could see less extreme price volatility than if it were to drop out of the S&P family entirely. For a stock that has already been crushed, that's obviously not ideal. So, for now, it’s time to cut the cord on the TTD stock until we start to see a substantial pivot in numbers.

What Do Analysts Say About TTD Stock?

Overall, TTD has a consensus “Hold” rating on Wall Street. Of the 38 analysts covering TTD stock, three have a “Strong Buy” rating, one has a “Moderate Buy” rating, 26 analysts have a “Hold” rating, one has a “Moderate Sell” rating, and seven have a “Strong Sell” rating. The mean target price of $15.24 implies a potential upside of 9%. Meanwhile, the high price target of $40 implies a potential upside of 186% from here.

The Trade Desk has had a terrible year, and shareholders have every right to be frustrated. The earnings miss was disappointing, the guidance was worse, and being removed from the S&P 500 certainly isn't going to help sentiment in the short term. 

And while the earnings miss was disappointing, the guidance was even worse; being removed from the S&P 500 certainly won’t help sentiment in the short term. The one piece of good news I see is that much of the negativity may already be priced into the stock. That doesn’t mean I’m dismissing the challenges TTD faces. But the company is now trading at a fraction of its former market value while still having a debt-free balance sheet and roughly $1.5 billion in cash. That makes TTD a stock worth watching. I wouldn’t buy it just yet. But I’m paying attention. 

Sept. 21 could bring more volatility and potentially another painful selloff. However, for long-term investors, the more important question isn’t what happens to TTD on any one day. It’s whether management can stabilize growth. After all, when a stock goes from being one of Wall Street’s favorites to one of its most hated names, that’s often when it’s worth taking a closer look.

On the date of publication, Ian Cooper did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.