Hong Kong Stock Concept Tracking | Thermal coal prices continue to rise, institutions suggest focusing on supply contraction and low inventories (with concept stocks)
The Zhitong Finance App learned that recently, coal prices have shown an accelerated upward trend. According to data from the Chamber of Commerce, the benchmark price of thermal coal rose to 972.75 yuan/ton on September 9, up 11.11% from 875.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month. On September 4, the Q5500 thermal coal liquidation price in Qinhuangdao broke through the key level of 950 yuan/ton. In the secondary market, on September 9, the coal sector rose. By the close of the day, Power Development (01277) rose 4.67% to HK$2.13; Yankuang Energy (01171) rose 2.76% to HK$13.79; China Shenhua (01088) rose 2.72% to HK$46.86; and China Coal Energy (01898) rose 1.40% to HK$11.57.
Multiple supply shocks were compounded, and coal prices continued to rise. On the domestic supply side, coal mines are slowly resuming production under the pressure of safety supervision. The new production capacity cycle is 3-5 years long, and the medium- to long-term capacity utilization rate has peaked. The withdrawal of excess production capacity accelerated supply contraction, and low railway shipments caused ports to quickly remove warehouses. From January to July 2026, the country's raw coal production fell 3.2% year on year. Among them, June and July decreased 9.5% and 9.9% year on year, respectively. The operating rate of 442 coal mines in the three provinces of Jinshan, Shaanxi, and Mongolia has dropped to 78.18%. Among them, the operating rate of coal mines in Shanxi Province is only 62.87%, a low in the same period in recent years.
In terms of disturbances at the import side, the blockage of Indonesian inland waterway transport is compounded by tight RKAB quotas, and the supply of imported coal continues to be tight. El Niño worsened Indonesia's drought — July became the driest month since 1991. In the first half of the year, coal production fell 4.2% year on year, and exports fell 3.2%. Combined with the implementation of a single export channel policy in September, supply disruptions intensified.
In terms of coal industry performance, according to Wind statistics, the coal industry achieved revenue of 135.98 billion yuan in the first half of 2026, up 9.3% year on year; total profit was 210.7 billion yuan, up 41.1% year on year. Profit for the second quarter increased further month-on-month. Revenue for the second quarter was 722.1 billion yuan, up 13.2% month-on-month; total profit was 125 billion yuan, up 45.9% month-on-month.
Looking at individual stocks, according to Wind data, the net profit of Panjiang Co., Ltd. increased 575.55% year-on-year in the first half of the year, Hengyuan Coal and Electricity increased 227.41%, Gansu Energy and Chemical grew by 182.94%, and Orchid Science and Technology Innovation increased 103.87%. Among leading companies, China Shenhua's revenue increased 7.93% year on year, and net profit increased 5.22% year on year; net profit of Shaanxi coal industry increased 38.37% year on year; net profit of Yankuang Energy increased 33.97% year on year.
Cathay Pacific Haitong released a research report saying that due to the combination of multiple supply shocks, coal prices continued to rise, and profits in the coal sector picked up across the board. Looking at the segment segment, the profit improvement of thermal coal companies in the first half of the year was greater than that of coking coal companies. Against the backdrop of an obvious decline in domestic production, import demand has increased dramatically. It is expected that the import volume will increase in the second half of the year, playing a complementary role in the domestic reduction. The bank believes that the bottom of the coal sector was established in 2025. In 2026, supply and demand will tighten due to supply disturbances at home and abroad, the coal price center will increase significantly, and fundamentals will improve markedly.
China Galaxy Securities said that overall, coal prices have continued to rise since this year due to factors such as Indonesia's tightening of exports and the geographical conflict in the Middle East. Coal companies have benefited from rising coal prices, and overall net profit, profitability, and cash flow have all achieved high growth. According to the semi-annual report data, in the first half of 2026, the Shenwan coal industry achieved a total operating income of 668.2 billion yuan, an increase of 15.6% over the previous year; net profit to mother was 68.9 billion yuan, an increase of 28.6% over the previous year. It is recommended to focus on flexible coal price targets with high spot share, low cost advantages and potential for capacity growth, as well as leading companies with resource reserves, cost advantages, and high dividend promises.
Guojin Securities also recently released a research report stating that although there was a year-on-year increase in imports in the previous 7 months, it was difficult to hedge against the domestic gap, and the buffering effect was limited. On the demand side, growth in total electricity consumption, fluctuations in thermal power, and weak demand for non-electricity coexist. Currently, mines have low production and low inventories. The peak of daily consumption for power plants has declined during the peak season and is still high. Port inventories are rapidly being removed due to tight supply in production areas and strong coal prices in Kengkou, and port inventories are rapidly being removed. Considering that power plant inventories are significantly lower than the same period last year, winter storage and replenishment efforts are expected to drive a rapid rise in coal prices.
Related concept stocks
China Shenhua (01088): China Shenhua (01088) announced interim results for the six months ended June 30, 2026. The group obtained revenue of RMB 189.338 billion (same unit), an increase of 7.9%; profit attributable to company owners of RMB 31,054 billion, an increase of 1.9% year on year; earnings per share of 1.448 yuan; and an interim dividend of RMB 0.98 per share. Among them, the announcement mentioned that the group has high-quality coal resources such as the Shendong Mining Area, the Zhungeer Mining Area, the Zhundong Mining Area, and the Xinjie Mining Area. On June 30, 2026, the amount of coal resources held was 101.08 billion tons and the coal reserves were 35.77 billion tons under Chinese standards.
Yankuang Energy (01171): Yankuang Energy (01171) announced interim results for the six months ended June 30, 2026. The group achieved sales revenue of 70,231 billion yuan, an increase of 15.4% year on year; the company's shareholders should account for the current period's net income of 7.875 billion yuan, an increase of 57.2% year on year; and earnings per share of 0.78 yuan. In the first half of 2026, the Group spent 13.152,900 yuan on coal exploration projects, mainly for some newly built mine exploration projects; capital expenditure related to coal development and mining was 3,790 billion yuan, mainly fixed asset expenses for existing mines, development and mining expenses for the Wucaiwan No. 4 Open Pit Mine, Yafangdou Coal Mine, Yangjiaping Coal Mine, and coal mines belonging to Yancoal Australia and Yancoal International.
China Coal Energy (01898): China Coal Energy (01898) announced results for the six months ended June 30, 2026. The group achieved revenue of 73.136 billion yuan during the period, a decrease of 1.8% year on year; profit attributable to shareholders of 8.192 billion yuan, an increase of 11.8% year on year; basic profit per share of 0.62 yuan; and plans to pay an interim dividend of 0.184 yuan per share.
China Qinfa (00866): The company announced interim results for the six months ended June 30, 2026. The group achieved revenue of 1,179 million yuan, an increase of 8.23% over the previous year; profit attributable to company owners was 227 million yuan, compared with a loss of 126 million yuan in the same period last year; basic profit per share was 8.67 points. The increase in profit attributable to the company's equity holders was due to an increase in the average sales price of thermal coal and a provision change of 165 million yuan (2025: none).