Guoxin Securities: The fundamentals of commercial and retail sales reports are bottoming out, leading the way to a new growth curve

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guoxin Securities released a research report stating that it maintains the sector's “superior to the market” rating. 1) Cross-border overseas: Fundamental comparative advantages are obvious, overseas demand remains high, external influences such as exchange rates have been mitigated, and iterative innovation of new products is expected to continue to catalyze performance. 2) Beauty care: Earnings are relatively under pressure in the interim report, but the stock price already fully reflects the fundamental pressure. Low base superimposed product growth and new curve volume in the second half of the year 3) Gold jewelry: Mid-term results were mainly affected by gold prices and terminal demand, and short-term stock prices still use gold price trends as the main trading clue. 4) Trade and retail: Weak domestic demand is compounded by differences in adjustment and improvement, and sector fundamentals are still at the bottom of refinement. If agricultural product prices and inflation levels pick up, supermarkets and agricultural market enterprises are expected to benefit, and future service consumption policy increases may also bring thematic opportunities.

Guoxin Securities's main views are as follows:

The growth rate of consumer demand has slowed, and the mid-reporting period sector experienced a phased recovery

Total retail sales of social consumer goods increased 1.3% year on year in the first half of 2026, down 1.1 pct from the first quarter; retail sales of online products increased 4.8% year on year, and online channels are still faster than the consumer market. As of August 31, the SW Trade and Retail and SW Beauty Care Index had a cumulative decline of 25.4% and 20.9% respectively, clearly outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index; from July to August, with centralized disclosure of interim results and a balanced market style, the two sectors rebounded 5.7% and 5.2% respectively, taking the lead in recovering individual stocks with performance support.

Overview of factors influencing mid-report performance in various sectors

Beauty care: Segment performance differentiation has increased, and personal care and upstream manufacturing have performed relatively well. The growth of brand companies depends on new product contributions and launch efficiency. Although some companies' gross margins have improved, sales expense ratios have increased even more, and profit release is still under pressure. Gold jewelry: High gold prices suppress demand for traditional per-gram products. High-end ancient gold and one-price products performed relatively well. The product structure upgrade compounded the contraction of the low-margin wholesale business, driving up the overall gross margin of the sector. Cross-border overseas: Q2 revenue continued to grow rapidly. Product-based companies relied on new product sales, category expansion, and global channel construction to unleash profit flexibility, and the comparative advantage of performance was obvious. Offline retail: Q2 revenue was generally under pressure. Department stores were affected by weak customer flow and operating leverage, and profits declined relatively significantly; supermarket companies were still in the process of closing and restructuring stores, and product, supply chain, and cost adjustments drove some companies to recover their profit margins first.

Risk warning: Consumption recovery falls short of expectations; industry competition intensifies; changes in corporate management, etc.